You’ve all seen it already, but let’s just take a moment.
In normal times, one would have rationally expected a missive like this to take 1,000 points off the Dow almost instantly. Instead, we get this………
So that’s my first cause for concern: when something SHOULD go down but INSTEAD goes up, you’re supposed to buy it. I’m not buying it, but as I’ve mentioned repeatedly, I’m definitely not being aggressively bearish either. Not even close.
(As a side note, Trump just pretended that today, Monday, wasn’t the deadline; instead, he magically added to 24 hours to it……..but I guess when you’re the POTUS, no one is going to stop you).
What’s extraordinary to me is how much things have changed. In World War II, when General Anthony McAuliffe write the single word “Nuts” in reply to the German’s demand for surrender, it was considered bold, hilarious, and shocking. Decades later, people still remembered it.
These days, the President casually throws out words like “bullshit” and “fucking” in press conferences as well as social media. We have truly sunk into a cesspool, and if you just take a few steps back and think about it, you’ve got to agree that almost every serious world leader out there must assume the man has lost his mind.
The oil market, I must say, seems to be acting a bit more sensibly to all this bluster: that is to say, it just keeps streaking higher, and it seems to me the MASSIVE effect this is going to have on the global economy seems to be getting totally ignored now.
Besides the fact that the market SHOULD be falling, but absolutely isn’t, the more subtle worry I’ve got is that my Bitcoin analog is looking more and more at risk. BTC zipped thousands of dollars higher today. A breakdown is still not out of the question, but the purity of this analog has been violated enough for me to dispatch with my own position (which, let’s face it, probably guarantees a $10,000 dive within a week).
The one and only friend of the equity bear right now is overhead supply, and it’s a big friend. Here on the /ES, you can see that the easy part of the bounce is behind us. The bulls have a vastly bigger task at hand to cut through all of this cordwood.
The same holds true of the /NQ, with the added benefit that the NASDAQ is below its Fibonacci retracement (which means it will serve as resistance) as opposed to the S&P 500, above, which has managed to crawl back above its own Fib.
I ended Monday even lighter than I began it, and so long as Trump continues to just kick the can down Taco Avenue, I intend to remain so. I am going to require some clarity before I shrug my shoulders and figure I’ll just let the chips fall where they may. I just don’t work like that.
