Hey, I guess I should be grateful everything isn’t raging green to new highs, right? Not yet at least.
In the least surprising event since someone released a hammer and it fell to the ground, equity futures erased the majority of their Sunday shock drop. On the heels of the mega-rally of the past few weeks, the news over the weekend would normally have crashed equities, but as I stand here before the opening bell, futures are down about half a percent or so. The universal ticker symbol is now BFD.
Volatility, that is to say fear, zipped from 20 to 21 and is now shrugging its shoulders again, confident that another Taco Tuesday is just a day away.
And gold has likewise unwound more than half its losses, although in this case, I’d say the setup suggests an opportunity to get even more short precious metals.
The crazy thing is that, setting aside all the tweets, rumors, attacks, counterattacks, and nonsense, one should simply compare the state of the world at this very moment to the state of the world on February 27th. What has changed?
- Oil is massively more expensive
- The very, very bankrupt U.S. government has spent an enormous sum of money it doesn’t have on a war without anything to show for it
- There is now a litany of risks and uncertainties that didn’t exist before
And the net result is…………we’re vastly HIGHER in valuations than late February!
As things stand now, gone are the days when I’m looking at some crazy number of positions in my accounts. I remain in boring old cash in two of them, and in another that used to sport 15 or 20 positions I have……….three!
Let’s take a deep breath, everyone. These are trying and confusing times for us all.
