There is a scene in “The Wolf of Wall Street” where Jordan Belfort is explaining to his friends how they are going to become extremely rich selling essentially worthless pink sheet stocks for obscene commissions. “Sell me this pen” has been the summation of a sales mindset for many years and this scene really does well in presenting the end-all-be-all of sales. “Create a need” in the customer’s mind, and you can sell anything.
I’ve actually been asked this in an interview before and, being that I do NOT have the salesman mindset, I failed miserably. I unsurely said “Well, this is a very nice pen. It will write all the things you need to write,” to which the interviewer said, “but I have this other pen”.
I was stumped, frankly, and not sure where he was going with it. The interviewer was nice enough to laugh it off and finish the interview for a job I didn’t get.
But what I didn’t learn until years later was they wanted to know how I would sell the idea, not the pen itself. Now, despite the presentation in the movie scene, this is not just a malicious sales tactic. It is simply how sales ultimately works, in legitimate deals or otherwise. If I am a potential buyer of something, I need to truly believe that what I will be getting for my money will deliver me my desired outcome. In this particular scene, that outcome is “easy pink sheet profits!”
Bringing this back to the point of this post, I’m continuing to watch Bitcoin. Crypto continues to be a realm of promised riches and a future where other money fails in comparison. It sounds great in concept. But I remain a skeptic for a number of reasons, first and foremost because I am a cynical SOB. But let’s look at the charts and see if we can’t get a story behind the action.
This took quite a dip from last year’s all-time-highs towards Feb 2026 lows, a drop of 52% from the peak.
Since, we’ve seen two basing “scoop” attempts. In mid-March this year, the first had a couple spikes up and breakout pattern attempt, above that 74,400 level. After it was even testing this area, it already showed this small sideways triangle pattern, which indicate instability and unsureness. Sometimes these end up being bullish and end up in a continuation, other times they end up in a reversal. Hard to tell in the midst.
In this particular instance, it proved to be a nice clean reversal pattern. But the basing off this level wasn’t done and it basically did the exact same basing attempt. Buyers love this 60k level. This time, once it broke above the 50 4-hour MA, there was steady buying and this MA proved to be very supportive.
This time, it rode this MA up through that very important prior resistance level at 74,400. And here we are, with another breakout attempt with similar consolidation/triangle pattern.
Here’s where things get dicey. A break beneath that 50 MA could be trouble. In the very least, it would make the range between 74,440 and 77,400 very playable in short-term bursts. But the real conundrum is it would kill the trend up and potentially kill the momentum this so desperately needs to escape this depressed zone.
I’m zooming this out so we can get a bigger picture of the action to see key levels because, despite short-term strength, there is significant overhead supply still in play. First, starting back in 2024, this broke out above 75k and didn’t really slow down until it broke 85k. From there it got very volatile, broke back beneath 85k in a very choppy fashion for about two months before breaking out to the upside with very convincing action. This should have left this area in the dust and in reality did so for a while. However, as of November 2025, this area was revisited and attempted to hold.
As we can then see, this support level failed and we dropped beneath those early 2025 lows. Yes, this is up in April and yes, this is on the upswing in the interim. This does have significant potential to run back up towards 85k. But if this manages to get there, I think this confluence of technical levels (the 200 Day MA, the 85k level in general from prior support/resistance, and an ascending trendline from March 2025 lows through November 2025 lows), will represent significant headwinds and sellers will step back in. If this does take that path, then I’d look for lots of action between 85k and 75k before deciding on what to do next.
So, to sum up, from a strictly technical perspective, the short-term momentum is pointed up. This is definitely off the lows of the basing pattern and there is clear supportive action on the MA’s. Until those supports get broken, I wouldn’t cling too hard to short positions on this thing. But longer term, I see significant headwinds in the technicals. If this doesn’t break down then this next leg up will surely suck in the largest number of retail investors since 2024 to say, once again, “we are sooo baaack”, at which point I will be waiting to hit my short button with gusto.
From a fundamental perspective, I am still waiting to be sold on this pen. It’s been a number of years and the story of why BTC is valuable keeps changing. Hell, the SEC hadn’t even decided on what to consider this “asset” under its rules until 2026 (almost 18 years or so after BTC was created?). And the go-forward argument for owning BTC remains the same. “It will be scarcer and so the price will go up”.
That’s not selling me a need for the pen. That is trying to sell me the pen. And if that is your only sales pitch, I remain a skeptic. But, in the interim, ride the crypto technicals long. I think they are headed for some trouble soon enough.
