Heading into the weekend, it seemed the big question was how peace talks would go. By Saturday, it was clear that they weren’t even going to take place, which in saner times would have meant a total wipe-out on Monday (that is to say, today).
In fairness, there WAS a gap down on Sunday when the futures opened, albeit a modest one, and even then, the market bottomed within minutes before dusting itself off and moving to LIFETIME HIGHS on the /ES, the /NQ, the /RTY, and any other index you might care to mention.
The strength in Bitcoin was particularly disturbing to me, since I had gone “all in” on my Bitcoin short in one of my portfolios.
The day is still young, but over the course of Sunday night, humans came to their senses and started selling off assets again. As I stand here before the open, all the equity futures are down (by just a teeny, weeny bit) and Bitcoin, happily, has dashed its attempts to cross above $80,000 and has slipped back to where it had started its upward assault.
In addition, our Clinically Psychotic Canaries in the Coalmine – – CAR and BIRD – – continue to weaken after their comic run-ups in recent weeks. Avis, which was trading at nearly $850 on Wednesday morning, is back into the 100s!
And maker-of-wool-shoes-turned-AI-infrastructure-kingpin AllBirds has yielded losses of about 80% for the hapless rubes who bought into their “pivot.”
I’m also taking solace in the fact that semiconductors, which likewise were at lifetime highs over the course of the night, have simmered down and perhaps might NOT hammer out the 19th “up” day in a row. Please? Pretty please?
The recipe for this inexplicably overvalued and insouciant market is:
- The flour of the belief that America always comes out on top;
- The sugar of excitement about the semiconductor sector, which has thrown off triple-digit gains in a matter of weeks for shareholders;
- The eggs of a low-tax, pro-businesss administration;
- The butter of a lax regulatory environment;
- The vanilla of sheer market momentum, which keeps feeding on itself.
Thank you for your attention to this batter.
