Let’s start with two related and relevant items.
First, during my tastylive show yesterday, I made two important statements: first, that I’d really appreciate it if the market gods could create a failed bullish breakout with NVDA, and second, that the AI Bubble’s failure would absolutely dwarf what we saw in the so-called great financial crisis. I’ve linked the specific piece of the video where I made the first remark:
Well, the market gods heard my plea, and they have responded in kind. The entire Nvidia breakout has been laid waste.
Good.
The much bigger news than my random musings was this item that appeared in last night’s Wall Street Journal:
It reminds me of that scene in The Big Short where the guy says, “It’s happening.” Listen, for my readers who have been paying close attention, you surely know that I do NOT want openAI to do poorly. On the contrary, I’d love to see if thrive. Yet the chartist and historian in me looks around and believes this entire multi-trillion-dollar AI insanity could create a global economic crash that, to quote your buddy, would be like nothing we’ve ever seen before.
Anyway, the aforementioned write-up in the WSJ has sent semiconductors (SMH) softer, which is great for my puts.
And this all aligns beautifully with what a favorite website I read, Where’s Your Ed At, has been preaching for years: that the economics of AI absolutely suck donkey, and that no one can afford, nor will they pay for, all these trillions of hyperscaling commitments. It’s just a fantasy.
Indeed, Ed’s rantings were what compelled me to buy puts on CRWV last week, and to good effect thus far.
Finally, my “North Star” of Bitcoin continues to bleed out slowly and steadily, for which I’m awfully grateful.
It’s truly nice to see some red on the screen again. April is a lovely month for many reasons, but April 2026 has been dogshit for equity bears, including your beloved Timmy. Having been beaten into timidity, I am 112% committed, but frankly that is a bold, balls-out attitude compared to what a more sensible person would have.
My 32 short positions await the opening bell.
