(Note from Tim: this is a "big enough to be seen from space" post, but I wanted to get it out there since it pertains to today's forthcoming activity)
Hi Slopers,
You've probably seen me around.
I'm now trying to put together a full article for the first time. I'm a terrible trader with a daytime job and partially or not at all working apps a partially working Blackberry are not too good omens either. Stop lossess are virtually unknown for me.
I still could have had an edge – that I failed to utilize of course.
My approach to the stock market is that it is a psychological cycle made of four stages:
1) Disgust
2) Disbelief
3) Acceptance
4) Euphoria
Which one do you think we are in right now when Cramer just turned into a raging bull?
I am not a big believer of fundamentals, and I think news can speed up motion, but the virtual direction would be restricted, pre-determined at times based on the inner state of this Turing Machine called the Market.
So my attempts in understanding the possibilities are tied to a 14 sample oscillator that I'm monitoring in 4 different timeframes as monthly, weekly, daily and hourly.
As you can see on the above image, a higher energy charge will make larger move possible as soon as a large candle falls off the sample.
The point of the oscillator is give a feel for how much energy has the given timeframe available for the next move.
A 55-60 charge is dangerously high, the index will not likely stay put in that stage.
A below 35 reading says you need some consolidation before you can continue trending.
Example
Back to the title I was posting a series of images I called coiling trying to catch when we finally break out of the daily consolidation and start trending again.
It is obvious now, that the initial move was the failed move.
As for tomorrow – the RUT is pretty worn, if it opens flat or slightly up, it should start filling in the shown yellow triangle.
Note that this triangle is only predicting the first 4 hours, and the faster it pulls back, the faster it shall earn the rigt ro start pushing in the direction of the trend, which is now up.
I have a lot to say, but I leave you with this for now: images of the recent big fall from the aspect of energies.
The above image is the Doji that the SPX printed on the 10th and what it did to its intraday energy. Fear the doji!
Some more add on since I have these images stashed.
The above is an example when I wasn't expecting an immediate push down the next day. And the follow-up:
The one below is another example of a consolidation expected.
The one below is how it played out
The following image shows the RUT making an impulsive push up, which is the trending direction, adjoined and consolidation
And for last my most confusing image yet. This one points out patterns, polarity changes and percieved directions based on energy levels being used or built up.
Thanks for your interest. - Macdulio
