If I was completely dependent on the market for my mental health, I would have made myself into a six foot tall Christmas ornament hanging from a coniferous tree long, long ago. To be sure, the market influences my disposition: I’m about fifty times happier than normal (a very tiny starting figure, certainly) when the market is getting killed. Over the past seven years, this has happened approximately never. Indeed, even the most recent history of the market looks like the chart below: it is either (a) going up quickly, or (b) it’s going up slowly. This is what markets look like when the VIX is approaching single digits, people.
It’s hard to know what to trust or believe in anymore. The old codger Warren Buffett has famously said something along the lines of “you don’t know who’s wearing a bathing suit until the tide goes out.” Thus, when the glorious, glorious financial crisis happened in 2008, Bernie Madoff got caught, because the market couldn’t give him a shield anymore.
The bizarre thing is that in this completely, utterly fake “market” we are in, even with all the advantages permabulls have, some bad boys are getting smoked out. It is sometimes distressing, though, because in our tiny community, I feel a certain level of awe and trust in the reputations of successful traders.
There was a lot of commotion about “Karen Supertrader” early last month, and although I’m not going to go into it here, I’ve also heard a lot of accusations about someone in the blogosphere whom I consider a friend (and, as such, I’m drawing no conclusions).
There was even a guy who used to hang out here touting his gold-dredging prowess. Suffice it to say this led to massive disappointment on my part as well. My lawyers are working on it. But Good Lord, who can I believe in anymore?
I decided a while ago that for the sake of my mental health, I had to make absolutely sure I had some projects going that were not at the mercy of the markets. For one, there is my House Safari project, which has been utterly riveting for me. The product is moving into places I never imagined before, and it has the chance of being the most successful thing I’ve ever created. Being able to create is vital for me as a person.
A few of you know that I’m also working on a screenplay. I was apprehensive about this, because I’ve never written a screenplay (or even anything close) in my life. I didn’t know if I could write one scrap of dialog. But I’ve discovered something: I’m actually really good at it (I think so, at least; we’ll see if it ever sees the light of day). Indeed, my problem now is that the movie is going to run three or four hours long at the rate I am going. All the same, it’s a marvelous distraction.
Here, allow me to share with you my personal vision of what hell would be like. Please watch this. It’s only three minutes, and it’s kind of fascinating:
So what’s so bad about this? These people are working in a clean, relatively safe environment, and they earn an honest living. What’s so horrible about it?
For me, what’s so horrible is that I’d rather be put in front of a firing squad than do work like that. It’s the kind of thing machines should do, not humans. Kind you imagine how soul-crushingly, mind-numbingly boring it would be?
However, for me, the markets are a lot like the tennis ball video above these days. It’s just a miserable grind. I know markets don’t “owe” me a good time, but God in heaven, things have become so absurd that I’m convinced it’s never going to end. The markets are so utterly captured and rigged that no one has a chance. No one except the buy-and-hold-forever crowd. It’s dismal.
What’s the point of this post? Meh; who knows. I like to clear my mind and share my feelings. And while I doubt anyone cares much about the state of my mind, I at least wanted to say that the reason I haven’t absolutely lost it (a phenomenon about which a number of Tastytrade viewers have written at me with marvel and wonder, since they figure I’d be a homicidal maniac by now) is because I have been able to diversify my life to such an extent that I’m no longer completely at the mercy of Janet Yellen. Thank God.
No matter what the market does, I have a daily (multi-times-a-day) obligation to Slope, 365 days of the year. I only hope my readers don’t figure out how I’m feeling. I’d prefer they think my heart was still really into this. So don’t tell anyone.
