Hello again Slopers, cccactii here again with a simple question that for some reason never seems to get asked in financial markets.
I try to ask it of myself whenever I am trying to analyze a trade, pricing action, news, or anything else that might warrant such a simple probe. When the housing bubble was blossoming few people seemed to ask why? The answer of course was simple: free, cheap money to absolutely anyone, rather than highly productive workers creating wealth from excess savings with rising incomes (in absolute terms), and a shortage of dwellings in a rising population. The end result was the illusion of wealth meets reality
We then experienced the supposed rescue of our financial system. There is no doubt that something needed to be done, but what have we really bought with the taxpayer's money? Time for the biggest and worst banks to play the yield curve and try to rebuild their balance sheets at the expense of prudent savers? A stock market rally? Have we fixed the housing problem? Are people finding jobs? Are we on the cusp of the private sector getting in gear?
The blog Calculated Risk is where I like to get a glimpse of economic and real estate news. I urge you to go there now and scan the headlines. They are not all that different from what we have seen the past two years but they do help answer some of these questions and give us some framework.
Perhaps the recent scandals of high frequency trading, dark pools etc..have changed some of the dynamics of the short term movements or lack thereof, but one of the backdrops we are facing is unprecedented worldwide stimulus vs the ramifications of unprecedented excessive credit bust. This is not hyperbole, it is fact. The pressure of these forces is rising, and should eventually be relieved through our currency.
Gambling has become our national pastime and is now regularly featured on ESPN. We all know how that game ends up, but we do not know the exact route we will take or the timeframe. The reality we all see and feel around us leaves us mystified by the recent pricing action, but in many ways it is rational. It is likely the beginning of a more rapid acceleration in dollar flight, a rational expression when one comprehends how we arrived at this juncture and what we are doing to try and avoid the consequences of our actions. Exhaustion seems as good a catalyst for me to wait for rather than fighting the tape.
Currently it feels like we are at a juncture with some pressure on the Fed regarding the dollar as gold prices are getting plenty of notice. The Fed always talks tough but does nothing. I expect more of the same, but believe that we may see some temporary counter trend currency movement imminently. I am actually looking forward to this as I want to see precious metals tested in the face of a rising dollar, and see the reaction. I expect that in time gold will not trade tick for tick with the dollar, but begin to claim worldwide currency status by default. Remember that we are trying to avoid defaults by printing money and credits. It appears that we may be in the early stages of such an event, but I want to see that premise put to the test.
There is a great little blog off the beaten path that provides some data worth reading. You will like her charts and you can get an idea of where the economy is heading and some time lines to ponder. I always read what Momma has to say, and I hope you may find it helpful in these times, and 2010 should be more to your liking. You can read it here.
Finally, I was thinking of the immense trouble that multi-family real estate is experiencing due to all the homes turned rentals hitting the market and the tax credits for home buyers. I looked at (EQR) Equity Residential, one of Sam Zells' properties. He was arguably the best real estate investor of our era, as he bought many properties during the last bust, from the Resolution Trust Corp. that the government set up in the aftermath of the resulting bank failures. He sold (EOP) Equity Office Properties at the top tick of commercial real estate in 2006. He then bought Tribune and turned triumph into catastrophe. I imagine EQR is having big problems even if he was prudent during the boom. These are very difficult times, and old assumptions may no longer be valid. Fortunes made over decades eviscerated quickly. Risk is high and we are in unprecedented times.
"Spending money we do not have is a way to prosperity." If you ask why to this statement, you should spend some time thinking about protecting yourself from the ramifications of this ideology. That is the answer to most of the why questions.
Here is a view of EQR. Notice that it took about 6 months to wipe out 12 years of equity in Equity Residential. The following 8 months have brought it back to 2006 pricing. A pictorial of the instability inherent with excessive debt.
