Everyone worth his/her salt is making projection about the 2012. There is almost unanimity in the blogosphere that Euro is going to crash and we will see a repeat of 2008/9. So everyone is bearish biased in varying degree. Doomsday drummers like ZH, Mish, Prechter et all are having a field day predicting the coming demise of Eurozone and return of the civilization to the stone age. We are encouraged to buy guns, bullets and canned foods. In the mean time, readership surges, ad-revenue and subscriptions come pouring in. They or their sister companies sell bonds by the bucket and deposit the much maligned fiat currency in the same TBTF banks on which they heap scorn every day. Not a bad business model, eh?
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Final Friday of 2011
We ended the year almost exactly where we started it. 2010 year end SPX was at 1257 and 2011 year end SPX is also at 1257. And the whole year I was possibly the only one shouting that we are not going to see a repeat of 2008/9.
Back On Track
I laid out the case for continued uptrend in my last night’s report. And here we are, back on track to the cycle high sometime next week. (http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/2011/12/nightly-report-december-28-2011.html )
Nightly Report. December 28, 2011
I am kicking myself at the back for violating my own trading principals. I have been writing for the last three days that a correction is expected and necessary for further up move. And yet I did not take profit and re-enter at a lower level like I did during the last pullback. Most likely I was complacent or I did not properly estimate the size of the correction. Just proves that every now and then the market shows you who the boss is. We all do our song and dance to win the heart of a fickle sweetheart but there is no guarantee. One momentary lapse of concentration, one deviation from the trading principles and we end up flat on the back. Luckily for me, there was no actual loss, but I feel that I have missed out on an opportunity.
Nightly Report. December 27, 2011
Tonight’s report will be short as nothing much has changed from last week and not much action in the market either.
I wrote on December 23 that I am expecting a minor correction by December 27, 2011. ( http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/2011/12/auto-pilot.html ) Although we had a slight dip in DIJA, the SPX and Nasdaq ended the day in Green. Tomorrow morning would be the only last chance of a dip before we go flying higher. I added a tiny little bit to my existing long position as I was waiting for a bigger pull back which did not arrive. Let us see how tomorrow unfurls. However one more buy signal was initiated today, as follows:
As you can see, this has been a very reliable indicator in the past and should run at least for few more days. This is a lagging indicator and is just a confirmation of the existing trend.
AUD is continuing with its continuation pattern and is possibly setting up a base for the spring forward. I expect AUD to move up-to 1.0265 in the next two days and finally test 1.0370 before getting rejected. That will also signal the time to close the entire long positions. The funny thing is, I do not even trade forex.
During my intraday tweet I mentioned that I am disappointed with TBT. I know for sure that US Bonds are on a downward cycle but it is not being reflected in the price of TBT. I hope it also races through the gate in the next few trading days.
Once again, I urge readers not to be biased. The concept of bull vs. bear exists only in the mind of retail investors and traders. For the big boyz, no such silly difference exists. They can be both at different time, sometime switching sides multiple times in a day. Very soon, may be within seven trading days, we will also change our costume and wear the bearskin.
We have sowed the seeds for this trading cycle; the fruits are hanging and getting ready for harvesting. Till the time is ripe, let us be patient. You cannot force the grain to ripen before its time, nor can you open the door of the microwave oven before that slice of pizza has been heated up properly. Try it yourself and you will know what I am talking about.
I am extremely thankful for your show of support and for following me in Twitter (@BBFinanceblog). Till I set up a Facebook page for the blog, the Twitter is going to be my major way of communicating with my readers. Please forward this to your friends and family, who might benefit from unbiased trading. Visit http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ regularly to profit from the world of finance.
