Last Monday morning TNX (CBOE Interest rate 10 year note) opened at 1.63 and SPY opened at $ 134.17. This Friday TNX closed at 1.59 and SPX closed at $ 134.14. So basically SPY was flat for the week while the yield on 10 year fell another 3.5%.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
BullS**t Ad Infinitum (by BBFinance)
Before we get serious, let us laugh out loud seeing the sheer stupidity all around and how the market is moving like drunken sailor with a bottle in hand. My apologies to the drunk sailor for inappropriate comparison.
Let The Circus Begin (by BBFinance)
The Ringmasters Pet by Ben Boling
Europe has been saved. Again! The rescue package worked out for Spain shows that when it comes to giving free money to Banksters, the real masters of the universe, the Politicians will find out new and ingenious methods.
The EU went out on limbs to provide money to Spain without demanding any conditions associated with bailout.That is the beauty of the MMT. You just have to write cheque to yourself. In any case, the modern money, which is not backed by any real asset, is an illusion, a figment of imagination, which the politicians and TPTB (The Powers That Be) can create out of thin air and make the sheeples dance and sing and do their bidding. As I say, never underestimate the powers of the CBs( Central Bankers) and now ZH can take a hike for next six months.
So are we going to see a repeat of January when the equities will keep going up and up to another galaxy? I would rather wait till the bearded one shows up with money here at home. What has happened in Europe has just put a band-aid on the bleeding banks and will help restore the calm in the market. More likely we will see a pop on Monday morning but I had other reasons for the pop.
I do not think we are at the moment ready for new bull phase but I think at this point we are going to deviate from the last year’s script. We will have a correction soon and I now think that we will not have a lower low. In that case we have seen the bottom. It is still too early for safe investing and trend has not yet developed but more and more it looks like we will follow the Presidential year cycle pattern.
There is still risk of whipsaw in the market and this bottom is not going to be an event but a process. Last Monday I wrote “Muppets Beware”. http://bbfinance.blogspot.ca/2012/06/muppets-beware.html When CNBC, Crammer, GS, every one of those tries to scare the hell out of investors, we would be aware that something is in works. It is going to be choppy few weeks for sure and not yet conducive for sustained bull run. “O” needs good August till October. I quote the following from The Reformed Broker:
“ John McCain was running steadily ahead of Obama in 2008 – with a message that "the fundamentals of the economy are sound" no less! – until the September meltdown of Lehman Brothers. That event was the trigger that shot Obama ahead of McCain and essentially ended his campaign. Contrary to Hollywood's take, it wasn't Palin's idiocy or McCain's age or anything else – simply his defending of the Bush Economy in the midst of this hundred year's storm. He looked ridiculous and out of touch, his optimism juxtaposed with the apocalyptic headlines that had jumped from the business section to the front page. By the time he was "suspending his campaign" to try and fix everything, it was already over."
As long as we understand that markets are rigged by these honourable folks, and we get an idea as to how it is rigged, we can place our bets accordingly. Nothing else matters. After election will be a different ball game altogether. We are watching the last hurrah and while we are at it, why not enjoy the show.
Week Of Hope & Helium
Pardon me for referring my older posts to bring home the points because mostly we read selectively and remember what confirms our belief. This is called “Confirmation Bias”. Yesterday I wrote: “Is the rally over? Somehow I do not think so. I think it still has few more days of fuel left and we may see the uptrend resumed tomorrow.” So we have had today. I wish all my calls would be always so correct!
Rip The Face Off Rally
That was some monster rally! It was special in many ways. This was the biggest SPX rally since 12/20, biggest VIX Drop since 5/21 and biggest 10 year yield jump since 3/14. But we are not surprised because we knew it would come. I have been writing about it since: gosh, I even forget myself. This is the reason I did not short the market even when SPX broke 1284. I am afraid I keep repeating myself so very often that you might find it un-exciting. But on the other hand, I have called most of the major turns and bounces correctly without being dramatic. Now that the rally is here, what do we do with it? That depends what is your goal. Are you able to follow the futures overnight and be ready to pounce on the keyboard of your computer the moment the market opens? Do you consider yourself a nimble trader? If so, then you are ready to play. But if you have a regular job with kids and family, you have to go to office in the morning and do hundred other things besides being glued to the computer, you might give it a pass. For those regular folks, cash is king.
