Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Who is the Enemy? (by Biffermas)
Who are you fighting when trading
the markets? Is it the government, known for a pronounced reverse Midas touch? They've
efficiently screwed up health care, the postal service, Amtrack, Fannnie Mae,
and General Motors, yet they seem to find a cryptic way of propping up a
multi-trillion dollar, multi-faceted market without detection? Are you fighting Goldman Sachs and the high-frequency trading robots camped in New Jersey? Are you fighting the Federal Reserve, with their nefarious
methods of flooding the world with cheap fiat money? Are you fighting chicken entrails, Elliott Wavers, Abby Joseph
Cohen, or the Turtles? Who is the enemy
that prevents you from being right on market direction and trading profits?
When you peek under that mysterious
curtain to find the real force behind the markets, who do you think you're
going to find? I suspect there is
nothing but a simple mirror with your own reflection.
Take responsibility for your
actions. Accept routine failure as the natural course of events. View a
properly taken loss as a success. The
only variable you're ever going to control in this enormous mess is yourself.
Find
your peace, like Dexter, who is pictured on the bottom (Goldman Sachs pictured on top).
Slope of Hope Humor – Part Three (by Biffermas)
Linear Musings (by Biffermas)
(Editor's note: When I asked for folks to contribute to Slope, dozens and dozens of folks raised their hands, but only a few of them have contributed consistently. I am very grateful for these contributions. One particularly consistent guest poster has been Biffermas, whose last post of the year is below. Thanks, Bif, from all of us! – – Tim Knight)
Humans conceive reality in linear (straight) ways. There is a starting point and a destination,
If A, B, C, and D are performed, than E is the outcome. Houses are built in simple geometric forms,
not blobs. We enter school in
kindergarten and follow the straight line of education upward through college
before attacking the world. Roads are
built as directly as possible, using bridges, tunnels, and carving away any
earth in the way. Scientific study is
notoriously linear, with research designed to eliminate as many variables as
possible. Linear thinking is likely an
evolutionary design used to reduce a complex world into a simplified form
understandable to humans. There’s
nothing wrong with this, provided that we realize it’s happening and account
for it.
Markets and stock prices don’t move in straight lines, they
move like water over uneven terrain.
Viewed from above, a river takes the form of a snake, and appears to
follow a very inefficient path while flowing from valleys to ocean (or Southern
California). Runoff from snow-capped
mountains will eventually reach the rivers, but the pathway is inconsistent and
constantly shifting. Leaves on a tree
don’t sway in the wind in uniform and consistent fashion, but in a chaotic
dance. Weather patterns are too complex
for 100% prediction by experts in the field.
With millions of variables, why should markets be any different?
Technical analysis is an excellent tool to survey the
market, without a doubt. There’s
nothing wrong with basing your trading plan around the linear concepts of chart
patterns and setups, provided that you pay homage to the higher complexity and
unknown forces in control. You must
yield to such forces by taking losses quickly when appropriate. If you refuse this you’ll cease to exist as
a trader; just another corpse in a large pile of like-minded who insisted on
forcing their two-dimensional world views against the violent multi-dimensional
market.
This short Alan Watts video captures the linear trap that many
Americans fall into. Grinding away
their entire lives going down the predestined path of education, work, raising
kids, paying off the debt and mortgage, etc.
A short, largely joyless life wasted simply to reach that great point on the
time-line: retirement! I hope all my
friends here on the Slope remember that in life it’s not the destination that’s
important, it’s what happens along the way.
Don’t forget to dance while the music plays!
Have an excellent holiday season, and best of luck in 2010! Thanks for all the support you've shown me, a relative newcomer. I'm leaving for Bora Bora on Wednesday, so I'll be largely absent until the new year.
Slope of Hope Humor Two (by Biffermas)
My friends, you are a hilarious group of intelligent loonies, and I've really enjoyed getting to know you. I feel at home here with the Slope comminity.
Note: I had an excellent soundtrack for this post, but Youtube flagged the video as a copyright violation. Lacking further time, I threw up (literally) some Bach. Given the nature of this video, I suspect Johann Sebastian is turning in his grave!
