Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Focus

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Well, per my post last week we blew right through the crossroads, and Thursday/Friday big range days reminds me too much like 2008 all over again. As volatility picks up, you must swing on shorter and shorter time frames, and the mistake I made then as a leveraged trader is not getting smaller, faster, and more conservative, immediately. Therefore I am going to get very focused, and focused on volatility.

Money is money, and I am just getting pure. No need to look at a hundred stocks when everything is tied to volatility. I made my most money trading XIV and UVXY puts during these elevated levels in 2011 as intraday moves can give you a weeks worth of profits. There are a couple of trade-able edges in this environment, I have shared in the past, and will again.

Regarding gold, et al. I am staying away as I think we are deflating, and with the Fed ending QE, I don’t see a catalyst, unless gold responds positively to a hedge unwind.

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Crossroads

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These last two weeks feels like a change in trend is coming. My signals are firing and failing, and I must step down in time frames to squeeze out profits. From a macro perspective it seems to make sense, the heroin from the FED is slowly drying up, and the Fed to SPY ratio says that SPY already hit the theoretical price that the final Fed Balance sheet will reach.

Volatility has refused to go down, and the dollar is up, which informs me that big money is getting defensive and this takes another funding source away from the index algos.

Small caps and commodities are struggling, and gold, silver, and miners are trying to reestablish themselves but no big moves so far. (more…)