Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Consolidation Takes More Time

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I Still Think the Consolidation Takes More Time

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday April 22 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:    With the GDX breaking below the 24 level this past week, it has strongly suggested that it is not yet ready for a parabolic run.   And, as I noted during the mid-week update, it even opens the door to another drop below the March lows before the parabolic run begins:

“. . . the issue I have with it is that the high was struck into an a=c target, which most often denotes a corrective rally.  It is for that reason that I wanted to see the .618 extension of that rally hold so that I can continue to view it as an impulsive structure.   But, Fibonacci Pinball suggests that once that .618 extension breaks resoundingly, the greater probabilities shift towards that rally being a corrective rally.  For this reason, I am viewing the yellow count now as a much stronger potential.”

“Moreover, I will note that if we can see a higher high made in the GDX in the coming week, then I can consider the pattern as a leading diagonal up for a wave (i) as modified on the daily chart.  Yes, I know this has gotten more complex than I had wanted, but I am trying to maintain an open mind to the potential I am seeing in the market.”

As of the weekend, my perspective on GDX remains the same.

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Market Thoughts And Forecast From The Legendary Robert Prechter

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In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.

1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?

My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.

2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves. (more…)

The Complex is NOT in Alignment Yet

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Apr 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive.  And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective.

However, while GLD and silver can be counted as just completing their 5 wave structures, I want to warn anyone who is going to attempt to trade downside that we are setting up in the heart of a 3rdwave.  That being the case, there is potential for the market to continue to melt up in the heart of that 3rd wave, which is actually the position we see in the GDX currently.

Silver seems to be chart that is most suggestive of needing a pullback in a wave 2.  We just barely held support last week in a 4th wave, and made a higher high in this past week’s action, which has now given us 5 waves up off the March lows.  That strongly suggests that silver “should” see a pullback, which I am counting as a wave 2.

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Beware Of Delusional Market Timers

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Preface from Tim: Below is an item contributed from Avi, which obviously is in sharp contrast to my own point-of-view. I’m glad he wrote this, though, because it saved me some time in doing a post I was going to construct called “Elliott Wave’s Last Chance”. I will summarize what the post was supposed to be about………

Our friends in Gainesville were hyper-bearish from 2009 until sometime last year. Back in 2009, they stated that the S&P might claw its way back to 1000 or so, but then it was going to be plunging back beneath the 666 low. As most of you realize, this never happened. Year after year, though, the crash was always around the corner.

At some point – – I’m not sure when, but I think within the past year or so – – they massively changed their tune (and their wave count). Their current position is that LIFETIME highs are still forthcoming, pushing even past what we saw earlier this year. Avi seems to agree.

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It May Take More Time For A True Breakout in Metals

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday April 8 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:    I have read in many places on the Internet that the metals have certainly broken out.  But, as you know, I am not quite convinced.  Now, that does not mean I am bearish.  It just means I still think there could be more downside seen before a true break out is seen.

As I have been noting for the last few weeks, silver has been providing us with the clearest of the patterns.  And, last week, I noted that, under both patterns, silver still looks like it needs one more push higher before it is going to make its decision.  This past week, we got our push higher to complete what is best counted as a 3rd wave off the March lows.  But, as we know, 3 waves up does not constitute a bullish trend.  Rather, we need 5 waves up to complete.

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