Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Are We Approaching A “Once-In-A-Century” Type Event In The Stock Market?

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As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others — along with the comments — to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective.  During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:

“For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70’s, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.

“There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But, over time, our studies indicate stocks do go up. As national economies become more integrated and interdependent, as communication becomes easier and cheaper, business is likely to boom. Trade and travel will grow. Wealth will increase. And stock prices should rise accordingly.” (more…)

These ‘Facts’ About The Market Will Continue To Get You Whipsawed

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I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.

As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.

However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.

But, the day after the market began a strong rally off the 2603SPX level, many were quite fearful that Oct. 31 would provide us with a market crash. You see, that was the day that a quantitative tightening was scheduled by the Federal Reserve.

Yet, that day provided us with a 50-point rally. Yes, you heard me right. And, again, market participants and analysts were looking the wrong way in a big way due to their fundamental beliefs about what drives the stock market.

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30% Correction Due To A Trump Impeachment?

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If you’ve been following my analysis of the S&P 500 through the years, you know that we have called the stock market rather well. In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016. However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we saw a 20-30% correction. In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time. (Yes, you’ve mentioned this at every possible opportunity – – Ed.)

And, for those that remember back to November of 2016, when everyone and their mother was certain the market was going to crash if Trump won the election, we staunchly stuck to our guns and noted that we expected the market to rally strongly “no matter who was elected to office.” And that is exactly what we got, despite the common expectation of a market crash if Trump was elected.

The news cycle has thrown one bomb at the market after another during the last three years. But the market has not cared about any of these “issues,” as it has continued to rally unwaveringly towards our long-term targets. So, let’s be honest: no one who has been investing or trading based upon geopolitics has been on the correct side of this market for years. Yet, the analysts focusing on geopolitics have certainly provided some entertaining reading about all the risks that have kept many investors on the sidelines during this major market rally.

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Investors Are Getting Stressed, And It Can Get Much Worse

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I am starting to see evidence of serious stress from investors based upon the tone of the some of the comments I am seeing in my articles on the market. Well, at least from those who did not heed my warnings.

In fact, even though I warned about this type of drop well before it happened, some investors were taking their anger out on me even though the market did exactly what I warned it would do. This suggests a high amount of stress being felt by many investors after only a 10% drop off the highs. Can you imagine what it will be like if we attained the full 20-30% correction that we see as a strong potential?

I have even seen commenters begin to channel Barron Rothschild, and say that they are buying because of the blood in the streets. However, I suspect that the blood they are seeing is likely only as a result of paper cuts or knee scrapes rather than any serious injuries – at least for now. In fact, we really have not seen any real blood since 2008/09.

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Are You An Investor Being Set Up For The Slaughter?

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For many years, I have been a staunch bull. In fact, many commenters and contributors on Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch were quite vocal regarding how they thought I was crazy back in 2016 for expecting the market to go from 1800 to over 2600SPX, and potentially up through 3000. Needless to say, many of them remained bearish throughout that rally. 

When many were extremely bearish in early 2016, I was pounding the table about a global melt up. When many were saying before the election that you should “sell everything if Trump gets elected,” we were again pounding the table for a rally over 2600SPX “no matter who got elected.” 

And, now that I am taking off my bull-suit, and have sent out my bear suit to be cleaned and pressed, these former bears are claiming that they “learned their lesson” and are now strongly urging investors to buy the dip. 
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