Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Just Take The Metals Out Back And Shoot!

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So, does my title appropriately capture the sentiment about metals right now?

While the title may seem a bit extreme to some of you, many are leaving the metals for dead, and others have already written their obituaries.

In fact, this past week, just as the metals were hitting what will likely be a bottoming in either a third wave of this decline, or possibly even all of the decline, a headline article came out on MarketWatch entitled “Here’s why gold might die out as an investment.”

Within that article, the writer alludes to the fact that since gold was not able to rally due to the geopolitical tensions around Turkey, then it is a sign it is no longer useful. However, if any of you have read my articles on this issue, you would know that history does not support the premise that gold reacts as a safe haven for geopolitical tensions. This is purely a fallacy. But, since it is regurgitated so often most of the market has taken it as gospel despite the facts suggesting otherwise.

The next premise within the article upon which he declares gold as dead is due to technology, and he is not referring to cryptocurrencies. While he is not wholly clear regarding this perspective, my assumption is that he is falling into the trap of most people in the market. Since the Nasdaq has continued to rally strongly, along with its supporting cast of FAANG, then that is clearly where younger people are going to put their money, rather than gold.

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How High Will The Market Rally Before The Economic Collapse Begins?

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Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.

Yes, I know the country is exceptionally divided. However, I brought this issue to light not because I see one party as being the savior for this country over the other. Rather, I brought this issue to light to show you that we are on a path of history repeating itself, as we have forgotten the lessons learned from the pain of the past.

We all have to recognize that the United States took a big step down that slippery slope of socialism with the passage of The New Deal. Since then, it does not matter which party has been in power, as we have extended those socialistic policies when the masses thought it was “needed.” Thus, each generation since The New Deal has seen expanding socialistic policies. While you can argue whether you approve or disapprove of this progression, to ignore that we are on this path is foolish.

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50 Reasons Why This Bull Market Has Longer To Run

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I always love reading titles to articles that tell me I am about to read a bunch of “reasons” as to why a market is going to do something. So, I thought I would write my own.

When someone presents you with such an article, this is what they are really saying:

The stock market is logically going to decide to move in a specific direction because the reasons for it to do so are stronger than the reasons for it to move in the opposite direction.

Ultimately, the underlying premise of these articles is that a market moves based upon logic and reasoning.

So, let me ask you some questions:

With what logician did the analyst consult in order to come up with their analysis?

And, when was the last time you read analysis from a logician in order to determine the direction for the stock market? I mean, would it not make the most sense for logicians to provide analysis for the stock market if one believes that we should be looking into reasoning for the market to move in a specific direction?

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Bulls Follow Through

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The first week of July was really about the upside following through based on the overall rounding bottoming pattern and temporary low setup at the 2693.25 low from the last week of June. The market was able to cement the status of temporary low from June, and had a decent “stick save” on Monday July 2 at the 2698.5 lows before closing at the high of the day around 2726 to cement another higher low.
Fast forward, the market tested the key 2740-area resistance for the 3rd or 4th time time later in the week, and was pretty much destined for the breakout like we expected. If you recall, the 2748 and 2758 prior highs level got blown out of the waters on Friday when the acceleration began since the bull train erased all doubts in the minds of traders. Overall, it was a fairly easy week because we’re definitely back in the aggressive BTFD (“buy the f’in dip”) regime as it worked very well for the majority of the week.

The main takeaway from this week was that the weekly candle was able to wrap up its bullish marching band at the highs and it’s a large bull bar. All the trapped bears and bull chasers are now in a vicious cycle on getting squeezed and rushing back into playing the game of BTFD as long as trending support holds for the immediate short-term play. (more…)

Trade Wars Good For The Market

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.

In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:

“Virtually all of the market headlines this week centered around the Friday imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on $34 billion in Chinese goods and the immediate reciprocation from Beijing. The duties kicked in at one minute after midnight and marked the most serious escalation yet in the burgeoning global trade war.”

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