Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

ES & Keltner Channel (by Greg)

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Here's another example of using a Keltner Channel to trade the ES,

ES 2010-03-31-TOS_CHARTS

1) We have a classic candlestick reversal (I missed it for some reason).

2) At point 2 we have my favorite setup, which is a back test of the reversal as it tests the edge of the Keltner channel that it just broke through.  The key here is price (5 min candle) should not close below the lower channel.  If it does you close immediately.  The other thing is you enter long as it is at, or probing below the channel.  Typically 1/2 point below the channel can be used as the stop.  I often use 3/4 of a point, but then I enter long as price is probing below, so it's often a 1/2 point stop.  Another key to the setup is a compatible volume profile.  In this case, volume dropped substantially on the back test, which further supports the setup.  Basically, the action suggests longs are just doing a little profit taking, and sellers have stepped aside. 

3) I'd close at the doji that printed on the far end of the channel, especially since the doji closed below the channel.  A reload, could be done when the mid-channel line held all 5 min closes.

4) After printing a double top that brought in additional selling one begins to wonder if we'll have a sell off.  During the push to the second double top, we probe support on the middle channel.  The advance warning to the break down comes with the doji close below the mid-channel line.  Bingo another signal.

5) The close of this last setup is the 3 SMA (Close) cross with the 5 SMA (pivot).

One of the things you might consider is eliminating anything from you charts that isn't used as part of you setup or trade management.  I think almost all traders can be hindered from effective trading by information overload.  It's taken me a while to realize simpler is better.  I often trade with iSwim, which forces you to chose just a single study.  After much consideration, my single study of choice hands down is the keltner channel.  In a lot ways, it's all you need besides price and volume.

I hope this gives you another idea to but in your bag of tricks.

Weakness in the ES? (by Greg)

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Let's start with a few ES charts:

ES 2010-03-24-TOS_CHARTS Hrly

The above chart is a little busy, but it shows we've reached a low volume by price area, which often means price would hang out for some time to fill the void with more price discovery.  Also note the massive volume in the area of 1200 on the ES.  My take is we get there, we'll see plenty of sellers show up.

Let's zoom into the hourly:

ES 2010-03-24-TOS_CHARTS hrly

Looks to me like we got a tad bit of rejection in the 1170 region.  Could be those from the 1200 area just itching to sell.  Note also how we tagged the channel line, and then fell to the next lower one, broke through and back tested and got rejected?  A touch of selling maybe?

Now let's zoom in once more:

ES 2010-03-24-TOS_CHARTS 2

Don't know about you, but it's looking like the recent parabolic move on the ES might just finally be a little long in the tooth.

The other thought I wanted to share was about listening to the market.  When we trade, we all have TA of some sort that catches our interest be it setups, indicator's patterns are what have you.  The one thing I think we sometimes miss in our rush to trigger a trade, is hearing (although with our eyes) what the market is telling us.  No matter what system you chose to trade by, it all boils down to filtering when to take the trade, and when not to.

For some it's a purely a mechanical process, for others something completely different.  My suggestion is watch closely how price and volume are playing out at any given moment when you near a point you might trigger a trade and see if you have a sense of it, and what it's telling you.  If focus your attention on hearing it's message, and are successfully you'll often have both better confidence and success in your trades. 

Tape Read ES (Tuesday Edition) by Greg

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ES 2010-03-09-TOS_CHARTS 

Tuesday's chart of the ES was very interesting.  As you can see by the numerous declining volume spikes, the buying surges were running out of steam.  The obvious question was where would a reversal come if it was going to?  The horizontal green bar was an area I flagged as a potential area where we might see a reversal.  The keltner channel set at 1.619 & 39 acts as a decent trade filter.

What I've noticed for short or long reversals late in the day, is that price will break through, and then back test the channel before making it's move.  When you see a break and a back test, it always bears evaluating for a potential reversal play.  The risk-reward is pretty good because you don't need a huge stop because either the channel edge will hold on backtest or it doesn't.  If it does, then late in the day odds are in favor of this particular setup.

In the above example the upward momentum fades causing price to near the channel, then the hanging man doji's add credence to the shooting star doji.  The volume bled off as the channel edge was back tested, and the clincher was the red candle which gaped down from the channel.

Lastly, in this kind of situation I've found the SMA (close)(3) Green line, and SMA (H+L+C/3)(5) Red line, work well to keep you in position on the trade.  When those two cross, it's time to cash out and call it a day.  The volume spikes just prior to the cross are the big clue the selling is about to end, and the cross nails the close.

Tape Read (ES Last Friday edition) by Greg

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Sorry about this not being as timely as planned, but the chart I started with was too hard to read, and Tim asked if I could use one with better contrast, and I didn't save the draft, so here is a quick redo:

Starting with last Friday's ES chart:

ES 2010-02-19-TOS_CHARTS White 

What I try to do, is understand current price action within the context of how other people are trading both in the time frame I trade, and higher time frames as well.  Price starts out forming a 1-2-3 reversal (Black numbers).  The failure of point 3 (in black) triggers shorts to enter and longs to close see arrow 1 red.

At point 2 (Red) we have a support line from a daily time frame.  Note the move below the trendline was reject with as much volume as there was when it broke though.  This is a sign price will head higher.

At point 3 (Red) The lows of the doji candlesticks respect the higher time frame trendline on lower volume telling you we are going to blast higher.  Also you had additional confirmation when the shorts that came in at the 50% fib retracement had no strength nor follow through.

At Point 1 (Green) we have a pull back on really low volume which means the longs are confident the move will be to the up side.  As an ascending wedge forms all pull backs are on wimpy volume so it's a high probability the move will go higher as it does on the break of point 2.  If you were to try and scalp a little during the building of the wedge, you would want to hold on to at least a core position as the odds highly favored a break to the high side.

At Point 2(Green) we get the expected break giving the loving squeeze to the shorts.

At Point 3 (Green) you will see price respected the 61.8% retracement from this years high to this years low on a daily time frame.  That tells you more upside is on deck.

Lastly with significant divergence on Price at point 4 (Black), we get our signal to go short.

What I hope to have conveyed, is the importance of being aware of chart aspects on higher time frames when trading a close in time frame.