For the record my bias in trading is to be short and I am short CCI which I entered today, but I am only looking for $2 and I'm out and I am still short CTXS. I still believe we are due for 5-10% correction in the near term, say 1-8 weeks, based on my IWM chart which I posted here a few days ago.

Saying that I feel compelled to show the weekly charts of DIA,SPY. I already gave my analysis of IWM and believe a new up trend has begun based on the 50 week turning up. This is to provide further evidence that any weakness will only be short term until certain price's are hit and that price would be the 200 week m.a.(yellow line)  I have marked  X 's on both charts where the 50 week turned up in 03 and 09. Notice there was no significant or prolonged weakness until the 200 week was achieved.

I have no reason to believe this time will be any different. One thing I have learned in my 7 years of trading and looking at squillions of charts is that patterns repeat, not exactly but very similar. From my IWM post a few days ago I illustrated how long that equity has been repeating itself, so why wont these do the same? At some point they will fail and new patterns will emerge, but until they do fail might as well make money off them. One further thing, look back at the $SPX and the 50 week, its very reliable for putting you on the right side of the trend and in trading that is all that really matters.

One could simply by some call leaps for a hedge if they are having a hard time getting long and prefer to be on the short side for our own individual views. 

Just a quick observation, this is a weekly chart of IWM. Notice every time since June of 03 that IWM tested its 20 week m.a. (which is the blue line) a break of the 20 week was imminent and the target was the 50 and 70 week m.a's. Which then led to new highs. Which will lead to a test of the 20 week again and then a break of the 20 week down to the 50 and 70 week m.a.'s. and then new highs, etc. That is the rhythm of IWM. Then notice how the 50 and 70 week became downward sloping in January 08, then it became resistance and the place to short. Signalling the time to buy was done and shorting was the profitable trend.

Furthermore notice each test of the 20 week, MACD had crossed over down and the bounce off that test either made nominal new highs or fell short, which in turn gave way to further down side testing. Also of note is how MACD reset itself at much lower levels from where the test of the 20 week occured. Only once marked with the x in the price and MACD pane did the test not give way to price testing out the 50 & 70 week m.a.'s. Notice the difference MACD never crossed over down! 

Fast forward to the current day and notice the set up occurring. Looks like the same pattern is still holding true. I am looking for a few days above the 50d s.m.a to start getting short. I think $60.50 and higher is a prime place for shorting. I will wait for $53-$54 to cover, which is where the 50 week should have risen to.

I must also say, notice how the 50 week turned up in June of 03. I think that is the easiest way to spot the trend, it was clearly up and bought every time it hit that price. Currently the 50 week has just turned up and in my mind is signalling the start of a new up trend and when it does get tested it should be bought. In my mind I will keep applying this analysis in my trading until it ceases to work, but is has been working since 03 so why fight it.

For clarification the grey line is the 50 week and the red line is the 70 week. I use the 70 week for further indication of the trend. As you can see in the chart its been very reliable.

I have traded CTXS religiously for a long time. I just wanted to show this daily chart of CTXS. I believe the order flow has reversed from the buy side to the sell side just as it did where notated on the chart. I bought June puts from $39.80-$39.00. I like the trade from a risk reward perspective, $40.50 is my MENTAL stop and gives a little wiggle room in the gap. Im risking $1.00 loss for a $12.00 gain roughly.

I will keep my short position in tact until my final target is hit or approached, but I will also play the thrust up patterns on the long side along the way. This allows me not to micromanage my core short position the whole way down and profit on the long side when circumstances dictate. This really compounds my returns and keeps me from sweating the bounces. Of course this strategy is only valid as long as $40.50 is not hit and if it does get hit soon, then as I said I believe the trend has changed and will keep my eye on it for the weakness I presume is percolating.

One last note from a broader perspective. This equity tends to top at the same time as the Q's or slightly before and the correction is much deeper and longer.

First off, thanks to TK for allowing me to post on his top notch blog. 

My name is Jeff Patterson I have been trading for 7 years now. My philosophy is to keep it simple in my analysis of charts. What you see on my charts are all the indicators I use. I do use daily, weekly and monthly time frames to filter out the volatility and noise. I will elaborate more thoroughly about my T/A later. I do not want to bore readers to death with my first chance to post.

I wanted to post my analysis of UUP. I do not recommend trading the options for this equity, they trade very poorly. I use it mainly for direction in gold equities. I did buy March puts, but more importantly at the same time I bought call options in AU and GG. If you look at the charts of AU, GG at the time I entered the puts you can see those equities were testing the bottom of their trend lines. Voilà, they produced nice spikes which I sold into for reasons I will spare you at the moment, but I have been dialled into these stocks for months now. By the way I am still holding those puts, just waiting for a test of the lows to sell them. 

On the chart there are some things I left out as far as further confirmations that it was just another spike up in my estimation and not a bottom, but I did not want to clutter the chart up too much.

Also UNG has a chart much like UUP that any time it tests its upper ranges it's nothing more than a spike and begs to be shorted.