Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Goldback

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At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was flat, and jobless claims fell far below official expectations. Secondly, the Federal interest rate was turning negative. Also, the measurement of Money Velocity reported that people are saving money more than spending it. As a result, this can adversely impact the US dollar and the GDP, creating the problem of inflation.

On the other hand, the gold price continues to grow and reaches new highs seemingly every day. Why is this happening? Basically, the gold price rises for the same reasons it usually does. Geopolitical unrest and events, waning faith in fiat currency, and the coronavirus are all major factors.

Currently, the gold price already grew 30% this year, so now it is on track for a great year similar to 1979. But if you are an investor in the stock market, hearing that inflation fears are driving up the precious metals prices might not put you in the best of spirits. Many new investors are entering the precious metals scene as a result, but many also lack direction. Are you worried about inflation and want to buy gold, but the gold price is off-putting? One solution is the Utah Goldback.

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Are Tech Giants Trading like Bonds?

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The tech giants are trading at valuation ratios that are close to unprecedented for such large companies. Currently, Amazon trades at a nosebleed price/earnings multiple of 122. Apple’s multiple is 33 which is extraordinary for a hardware manufacturer. Netflix clocks in at 84. Tesla leads the pack at 752, but that is largely due to its miniscule earnings. Overall, it is hard to look at these valuations without thinking “bubble.” But there is another interpretation.

At Cornell Capital Group we asked: What if the major tech giants (and I would exclude Tesla from this group) are trading as if they were quasi-bonds? That is a combination of their technology, their market power and the impact of Covid is such that their projected earnings are virtually locked-in. They are largely immune from the risk of competition and the fluctuations in the economy. If that were true, then the discount rate may be a good deal lower than that implied by traditional asset pricing models. To get an idea what this means, let’s go back to the basics.

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Prolific Short Sellers

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Activist short sellers have ramped up activity this year. During the first half of 2020, dozens of stocks have seen wild price swings. Many biotech companies saw their stocks skyrocket after they joined the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. The rise of the so-called Robinhood traders has also caused many stocks to behave irrationally, giving activist short sellers some lucrative opportunities. Here we take a look at the most prolific activist short sellers in the first half of 2020.

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Is Tesla Even in the Auto Industry

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The standard method of determining what industry a company is in is by looking at its underlying business. By that standard, Tesla is clearly in the auto business.  Virtually all of the company’s revenues and costs are related to building, selling, and servicing automobiles.  But there is another way of checking whether a company is an industry that has implications for investors.  The idea is that if two companies are in the same industry, then their stock prices should tend to move together.  For example, when the Covid-19 crisis arose, the stocks of all major airlines collapsed together. This raises the question of whether using this second criterion Tesla is in the auto industry. Before turning to the results, a couple caveats are in order.

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