I was hawking GS near the end of the day yesterday and had a plan in place based on how it opened this morning … I tweeted about opening a position at $151.30 and the plan to take a scalp profit at the next GANN target at $152.70.

I like the GS potential up to that resistance line around $154.80 and then we will have to see what everything looks like.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Sitting here pre-market on Tuesday I thought I should update my market outlook.  The following chart lays out my current reading of the market/SPY … I do think we are going to pull-back/consolidate here for 2-3 days. Traders have to remember that pull-backs from Ascending Triangle Patterns in bull markets happen 57% of the time and take between 9 and 11 days to complete (from Bulkowski's studies). Also note that Ascending Triangles hit their pattern targets 75% of the time.

I think that $135 round number will be a nice pull-back target and $140 a nice upside target. Looking at time fibonacci targets, the low and pattern break-outs fit nicely so I am looking at the 1.382 mark as the upside target date … that would take us out to Friday May 20th as a possible topping date.

Cheers … Leaf_West

I wrote a blog post back on April 28th about how the Retailers ETF/Index have led the market really since the bottoming last summer.  Here are the charts from that blog post:

Here is the current daily chart … note the possible ending diagonal.

Relative strength versus the SPY shows that the Retailers are possible entering a weaker period coming up here.

I will post some charts of some of the weaker Retailers later today.

Cheers … Leaf_West

A further look at the energy sector after my blog post from yesterday … just as an aside, I started a short on the XLE etf at yesterday's HOD this morning at $79.50.  I did it via the 2x Proshare "DUG" at $26.33.  I plan to monitor and add to this trade if it works like I think it will.

Another Energy component is the oil service sector … much like the XLE chart that I posted yesterday, OIH is lagging the break higher that the markets are having here.

With triangle patterns, it is best to wait for the pattern to break either higher or lower instead of trying to guess which way it is going to go.

One stock that seems to be in a confirmed move is TranOcean (RIG) …

While keeping my eye on the OIH, I plan to try and short RIG on any push into that 50EMA area on the 30min chart ($72ish). Cheers … Leaf_West

We are right at the upper trend line on the ascending triangle, right at position "D" and right at the 1.0 time goal projection on the Fibonacci Time Grid.  I think my short term projections over the past week have been spot on.

The $64 million question is what is going to happen after the Fed meeting/press conference.  I still believe that there are just too many bullish charts to expect price to roll-over.

The chart above draws in some targets for the move higher … the MOB target drawn via the eSignal software points a target right around the 61.8% triangle pattern projected target ($140.50ish).  The 100% Triangle Pattern points to $144.00ish or about 7% from current prices.

The projected/optimum time target according to the MOB target is May13th, which I believe is the next option expiry date …. conspiracy theorists can begin their discussions!!

Note that the daily DMI has crossed over and has confirmed the new trend higher.  Optimally we would get an "E" wave push lower tomorrow either in front of the Fed announcement or shortly after.  The market may not want to wait for that however … if that is the case, that is a great indication as to the strength of this move.

Don't fight it … get long and enjoy the screaming chimps as shorties are forced to cover here on the bust higher.  $135.05 – $135.15 should force the last of the shorts to cover and set-up an intermediate top in that 1st or 2nd week of May.  That may be it for a top until late summer/early fall.