Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) climbed above 11.50 this morning. By the look of the spike to 11.85, this forced a wave of short-covering, and triggered the upside potential off of its Sept-Nov base formation carved-out between 11.10/30 on the high side versus 9.50/30 on the low side. The optimal next target implied by the upside breakout is in the vicinity of 13.00. That said, the next extreme near-term resistance barrier is 11.95-12.00, which represents the 62% recovery-retracement zone of the entire prior downleg from 13.59 to 9.24.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
AAPL Poised for Positive Earnings Reaction
Apple reports Q3 earnings after the close of trading on Tuesday. Wall Street always gets excited when AAPL reports, because investors and detractors are extremely passionate about the potential of the company — positive or negative.
All eyes will be on the “line items:”
+ iPhone 7 sales
+ Units shipped… Macs shipped… iPads shipped
+ iPhone selling prices
+ Gross Margins
+ Will a new laptop be released?
+ The China factor
+ Guidance
+ And Tim Cook’s spin on business
There are lots of “known unknowns” to assess before Tuesday evening, which is why I undertake a ritualistic chart-based exercise to see if my technical set-up work in AAPL provides clues about the likely reaction to the earnings release. The chart work enables me to strip away the fundamental pre-EPS hype to determine if AAPL is positioned either for a disappointment, an upside surge, or a neutral reaction?
ES Plunges Beneath its 4-Week Support Line
Could it be that the ES (Emini S&P 500) is finally breaking to the downside out of its month-long contracting coil pattern? Since yesterday morning, the ES has pivoted to the downside from 2163.50, and has accelerated beneath the lower-coil boundary line at 2140 to a low at 2133.25 so far.
The reason why this time could be different, and consequential, is because today’s sell off has violated the prior two, pullback pivot lows at 2138.50 and at 2136.00. This leaves the index vulnerable to downside continuation to 2120-2107 mid-Sept support, which must contain the selling pressure to avert a plunge towards the lower portion of the July-Oct megaphone pattern, now in the vicinity of 2080. Only a sudden upside reversal (the invisible hand) that propels the ES back above 2141 will begin to neutralize the potential damage of today’s weakness.
Bullish Set-Up for Oil
Oil climbed 7% from yesterday’s low to high in reaction to the OPEC cutback news.
More importantly, perhaps, the overnight price action has been well-behaved, near the $47 area. This suggests that after Wednesday’s vertical upmove, oil is building a bull-flag digestion period prior to upside continuation towards a test of the Aug high at $48.75 — in route to a challenge of the June high at $51.67.
After just about every strategist and analyst took to the airwaves with an opinion about the OPEC deal and the prospects for Oil prices — that the deal will fail, and that prices will reverse — it is very impressive technically that oil is perched just off of yesterday’s highs.
Oil Technicals Continue to Look Constructive
Unless and until Oil breaks below the Sep 1 low at $43, my medium-term pattern and momentum work argue that all of the action off of the June high at $51.67 represents a major digestion period within an incomplete recovery period off of the Feb low at $26.05, which projects to $60-$65.
With the foregoing in mind, heavy and important support resides between $45 and $44, which so far has contained the selling pressure off of last Thursday’s (Sep 8) high at $47.75. The longer Oil holds in the $45-$44 area, the more likely my medium-term bullish set-up will begin to unfold in the days ahead — a thrust to new Feb-June highs above $51.67 towards $60-$65.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
