Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What’s Next for Gold?

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Gold is taking a bit of a breather after earlier climbing to a new recovery rally high at $1220.70 in the December futures (GC), a full $53.60 and 4.6% off its August 16, 2 1/2-year low at $1167.10.In a very bullish set-up, gold (GC) should digest recent gains above the $1207 area, where the 5 DMA has just crossed above the 20 DMA. However, if $1207 is violated and sustained, then we should expect gold to press into a deeper correction of its $53.60 rally, towards the $1195-$1190 support zone, which MUST contain the weakness to avert a complete retrace of the August advance.

If either the shallow ($1207) or deeper ($1195/90) corrections unfold, the subsequent upleg will point to $1250.00.
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A Rumbling Below the Surface for US Dollar?

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Today is all about Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech at 10 am Eastern, but from a market perspective, we might want to keep a close watch on the reaction of the USD to what Powell says or does not say.

Why? Yesterday’s strength in the Dollar has reversed overnight into this morning’s pre-market session.

In a post to members at 15:30 yesterday, I posited the following about the USD: “The $64,000 question about Gold and the Gold Miners depends on the direction of the USD: Was the recent decline in DXY the start of a period of weakness or a completed correction?”  (more…)

Two Largest QQQ Components Compromised? 

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Last week, I opined a technical piece entitled, ” Momentum Divergences Flashing Warnings Signs for QQQ & FAANG Stocks,” which highlighted the near- and intermediate-term divergences that were and still are developing in the big-cap technology sector.

Today I follow up with a look under the hood and the technical set ups in Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), the two largest components of the NDX-100 and QQQ.

AAPL has been perched above the upper boundary line (204.50) of its February-August bullish channel for almost two weeks, which, among other things, is a sign of excellent relative strength but also could be a sign of approaching upside exhaustion. That said, as long as AAPL remains above key near-term support from 205.20 down to 204.30, let’s consider its post-earnings action as a sign of excellent relative strength. (more…)

Additional Upside Likely for ES

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The Emini S&P 500 (ES) continues to stair-step higher, reaching my next higher target of 2853/56, and now in route to 2868/72. However, if we view all of the action from mid-July to the Aug 2 test of key support at 2791 as a failed head & shoulders top formation, then the subsequent up-move from 2791.00, which has climbed above the levels of both Shoulders at 2822-2825, and above the peak of the Head at 2849.50, now has an upside “failed pattern” target of 2885.
 
In my decades of experience, when a head & shoulders top fails to break the neckline, and then reverses to the upside, its target is measured by adding the distance from the head to the neckline to the top of the right shoulder. In this particular case, we arrive at a major target in the vicinity of 2885. (more…)

Apple Tops $1 Trillion Valuation with New Price High — What’s Next?

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Apple (AAPL) has kissed a new all-time high above 207, where the company is valued at $1 trillion. So far, the high, as seen on the chart linked to below, represents about a 1.9% overshoot of the upper channel boundary line of the February- August bullish price channel.
 
Apart from the excitement and magnetism of the trillion dollar achievement, my channel boundary line analysis is necessary to overlay on the near-term fate of AAPL. In that the upper channel boundary has contained all the prior rally peaks for the past six months, the upside penetration of that barrier should be significant EITHER because it will put a lid on additional sustained strength, OR because AAPL is so powerful that the upper boundary is no longer viable, and, instead, is triggering a new, more bullish trajectory going forward.

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