Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Winners In The Slopefest S & P Guessing Contest

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I show a cash close on the S & P 500 to be 1110.88. We have some very uncannily close predictions. As you will recall, by contest rules, first and second prizes cannot be awarded to any guess that exceeds the cash close. Prizes for third and fourth place are without regard to the over rule. Booby prize to the furthest away from cash close is also without regard to the over rule. Without further ado:

First Place: the winner of 2 Morgan Silver Dollars goes to 1110.00

Second Place: the winner of 1 Morgan Silver Dollar goes to 1106.50

Third Place: winner of a fine selection of crisp German Weimar Notgeld notes goes to 1110.97 (Special note to FB on THAT call. Buddy, if you ever start a paid service, sign me up! Unreal!)

Fourth Place: winner of a bull sac (whatever that is!) goes to 1112.20.

Booby Prize: a fine example of Zimbabwe hyper-inflationary fiat goes to 913. (note to 1271..DP, close, but no cigar).

I will be getting in touch by email with the winners so that you can supply me with postal addresses for prize delivery. I am responsible for prizes 1 through 3. Biffermans will be sending out prizes 4 and 5. Please, do not contact through the email address by which you entered the contest. That address has been turned over to Tim Knight, our most gracious host, for purposes of Slopefest.

Again, thank you all for participating and hearty congratulations to the winners.

0507-niven

Speculation and Trading vs. Gambling (by Market Sniper)

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This is a topic about which there appears to be a tremendous amount of confusion. I have spend more than a small amount of time thinking and reflecting on this topic as well. These are my thoughts and reflections.

Is there a difference and if there is, what is that difference? Is there a grey area in between? Both trading (the term "speculation" can be used interchangeably) and gambling imply risk to capital. Risk exists in the very act of living. Here are my starting definitions and a signpost to the potential difference between the two:

A speculator seeks to take advantage of risk that is already in existence. He does not create the risk.

A gambler creates the risk. Without action on the part of the gambler, the risk does not exist.

Here is another potential difference. The speculator makes a trading decision based some type of analysis and can modify his risk and capital committed to the trade through time. The gambler, however, once the bet is placed, is now an observer and the rules of the game now control the outcome.

There are many games of chance. A professional poker player may actually approach trader status. He plays with a definable edge and I consider poker to be a game of skill. For the purposes of illustration of the differences between trading and gambling, I will use the game of blackjack in a casino setting.

The blackjack player's first decision is the size of his bet. A trader makes the same decision as to trade size. The dealer deals you your first card. You can do nothing. This is the equivalent of a price move to a trader and he can then re-evaluate his position. He can exit, he can increase his size, etc. Dealer finishes the deal. You now know what your hand is and half the hand of the dealer. Now the blackjack player has decisions to make. He can hit, stand, double down and split his cards. He can also choose (if rules allow) to surrender half his bet. These are also the equivalent of price moves in a trade. Now, the dealer has dealt you a blackjack, can you increase your bet to the total size of your bankroll? Of course you cannot. A trader could!

Now let us examen expectancy of outcomes. A trader has a perceived edge when entering a trade. It is developed over time using the same trading setup. Does the trader know the outcome of the trade? Of course he does not. However, he CAN know the outcome over a large population of trades using the same setup with the trades all executed in the same manner (discipline). Does the blackjack player know the outcome of the hand in advance? Of course not. Neither does the casino. The casino could not care less about the outcome of your hand either.

They are playing thousands of hands and the casino has the edge. Their edge is that you have to make decisions before the casino does. You lose your hand by busting out and the casino busts out as well, the casino already has your money. There is no equivalent of this when trading. Can the casino's edge be overcome? Yes it can but only by applying a very high level of skill. In days past, you could count cards. The casinos have employed counter measures and there is no longer an edge counting cards. However, advanced shuffle tracking methodology CAN give you an edge. This is the same as trading then in some respects. A highly developed skill set can overcome the beginning negative expectancy in a trade which is the spread between bid and asked and the commission for the trade. You begin each trade negative.

When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino. Here are some of the sign posts that you have crossed the line. I love Jeff Foxworthy so I will steal his "you just might be a redneck."

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.

2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.

3. IF your bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.

4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.

5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.

6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.

7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.

8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.

9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.

10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.

And my all time favorite

11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

In summation I would like to say that I do enjoy casino gambling as a form of entertainment. I strive to over come the house's edge when I do gamble. Gambling is entertainment and trading is a business and should be approached as a business enterprise. IF your using the markets as a gambling outlet, be my guest. Traders that approach trading with a positive expectancy WILL take all your money. They will send you stumbling out into the night, cross-eyed and mumbling to yourself. Be smart. You can either feed the trading gods or feed your head. Do the work and get educated before risking one thin dime. Employ laser like focus in your trading and use iron discipline. The end result can be well beyond your wildest expectation.

SPX Contest Reminder by Market Sniper

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Slopers! Today (Wednesday March 31, 2010) at 4:00 EDT sharp, the contest entries will be closed. For a quick review, see http://slopeofhope.com/2010/03/spx-guessing-contest-and-slopefest.html 

A few additional words:

1) Contest is open to ALL Slopers. You do NOT have to be at proposed Slopefest to win! (Editor's note: although you're obviously a lot cooler if you are going)

2) Winners will be contacted by email for a postal address so prizes can be delivered.

3) In the highly unlikely event that the market is closed on May 7, 2010, the close of the first market day thereafter will be used as the closing number.

Submit all entries to: slopefest@gmail.com

Good luck to all!

SPX Guessing Contest and Slopefest! (by Market Sniper)

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Hello fellow Slopers!

Bifferman and I have come up with a contest with REAL prizes to celebrate the up coming Slopefest!

The contest: to guess the closing price of the Standard and Poor's 500 (SPX)  on Friday May 7, 2010.

These are the prizes:

1st Place: 2 Morgan silver dollars. Common date and in circulated condition.

2nd Place: 1 Morgan silver dollar. Common date and in circulated condition.

3rd Place: Nice selection of crisp Weimar German Notgeld notes. If your not familiar, here is a link: http://germannotgeld.com/

4th Place: A bull sac (You will have to ask Biff what that is!) and a special prize, better known as a booby prize,  for the person who's guesstimate is the FURTHEST from the close: a 1 Trillion Zimbabwe Dollar Banknote.

Here are the rules:

1. Since this is a bear blog, in order to win either first or second prize, your guess cannot exceed the actual close on the SPX.  An over estimation will not exclude you from winning the other two prizes.

2. In the unlikely event of a tie for first place, two Morgan dollars will be awarded the tying guess for first place.

3. For those of you who decide to game the rules to get the fourth place prize by estimating a ridiculous number like 1 or 100,000, the holders of the contest reserve the right to exclude such entries at their discretion.

Further information: I, Market Sniper, will recuse myself from participation in the contest. I am providing the prizes for first through third place. Biff is supplying the fourth place prize and booby prize. Biff and I are in further discussion as to a potential prize for the lucky Slopefest attendee closest to the closing number. I will collect all guesses and forward a copy to Biff. If our gracious host allows, the responses will be the subject of another post.

ALL ENTRIES MUST BE SUBMITTED PRIOR TO NYSE MARKET CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 31, 2010.

Please submit your entry to slopefest@gmail.com

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!!!

Developing a Trader’s Mind (by Market Sniper)

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Hello fellow Slopers! My apologies for not being more of a regular contributor. I have recently relocated and that has thrown me a bit off my stride.

This is the first of a series of posts on setting up your trading business. The topics covered have had books written on them and this is not meant to be inclusive or, due to time and space constraints, cannot be an in-depth examination of the topics covered. They are however, what I consider to be the essentials of what is required to become a successful trader. At the end of each topic I will include further resources that I have found most helpful in my development as a trader should you wish to delve further. Here is the proposed outline:

  • Developing A Trader's Mind Set

  • The Nuts And Bolts: your business plan, mission statement and statement of belief.

  • The Search For Method

  • Finding Your Edge: trade setups, trading plans and trading journal

  • Risk Assessment And Trade Management

  • Putting It Altogether

  • These topics, with the exception of the first, are not meant to be necessarily dealt with in sequence. You will find they are highly interrelated and most, if not all, you will deal with throughout your trading career.

    Development Of The Successful Trader's Mind Set

    I am firmly convinced that this is what separates successful traders from failed traders. There are statistics and studies that indicated that 95% of all traders eventually fail. In futures trading, that 95% is usually within the first year. For equity traders, it takes a bit longer. Interestingly enough, most traders do not do the hard work in advance. They fail to recognize the psychology involved as they interact with markets. I have found that this a voyage of self discovery and one of the most difficult things I have attempted in my life. The rewards, however, are spectacular.

    Most traders read a few books, check out some web sites, open a trading account and then start trading. IF this is you, you have already doomed yourself to failure. As Dear Old Dad Used To Say: if making money was that easy, everyone would have a lot of it!

    Trading is a marathon event, hopefully one you will run for as long as you choose to continue trading. It is NOT a sprint! Most traders look for stock picks, trading gurus, sure-fire trading methods (also known as Holy Grails), etc. immediately. The Holy Grail does NOT exist outside yourself but it DOES exist! It is located between your own two ears, should you seek to develop it.

    First of all, successful traders learn to think in terms of probabilities. NOBODY knows what will happen next! Shocking, no? The good news is, you do not have to know what happens next to make money in markets. When you trade your perceived edge you are trading nothing more than your assessment of the probability of one outcome being higher than another outcome.

    It has been said that we trade our belief in what happens next, and I do agree with that statement. It is what you do when you find out what happens next that also separates successful traders from the rest.

    This brings us to dealing with the need to be right. More good news: you do not have to be always right to make money in markets! Indeed, you can be wrong a majority of the time and still make money in markets! Medical doctors undoubtedly make the worst traders. As a medical doctor you must be right. If you're wrong, people die. Bring that to the market and you will get slaughtered. In our previous successful endeavors, we have developed skill sets to become successful. Bad news: for the most part, you apply those previous skills to trading, you will get slaughtered.

    Why is that? Your previous skill set involves manipulating the situation you are in, the people around you, and your environment to achieve the desired result. The market will have none of that. Once you hit the trade button and your trade is executed, you no longer have any control over price action. Indeed, the market is structured in such a way to compel you to act contrary to your own best interest! That is the reason why most continue to buy at highs and sell at lows.

    There are a host of other issues that you must deal with as well. You might want to look closely at your relationship with money itself. Do you believe that when wealth is garnered by an individual that he deserves that wealth? Is money the root of all evil? What about wealthy people, eyes of needles and camels? There are fund managers that manage funds invested in individual traders. They KNOW when some trader is about to hit the wall due to the level of equity. Even professional traders are not immune to this. Deep down, below the conscious level, they believe they only deserve to make so much money. When that is exceeded, they find ways to give it back! Absolute equity levels are tracked by these managers. When a pattern emerges, they take advantage of that. As children, we are taught that to take what belongs to others is wrong. How do you feel about taking someone else's money? On the surface, you may think, hey, no problem. Look deeper, it could be a problem. This is but a very brief examination of some of the work ahead of you as you attempt to gain a successful trader's mind set. At this point it might be instructive to examine some of the qualities of successful traders as it relates to constructing your own Holy Grail.

    Responsibility. Successful traders take full responsibility for their trading decisions and trading outcomes. This is one of the most important qualities found in a good trader's mind set. It is the core of everything. As you move through life, you either believe that you can create your own desired results, or things just happen to you. When you believe you create your own results, trading then becomes a learning process. You can identify behavior that leads to undesirable results and take steps to correct behavior. IF you believe that success/failure is due to luck or external forces like the PPT, TPTB, GS or Ben Bernanke, you will continue to repeat your errors, and your trading career will be short lived and end in disaster. Take the responsibility upon yourself. Own it! This is difficult for many to do. Take the step. It will pay you huge dividends!

    Commitment. Success comes to those traders that treat trading as a business. What this means is you make the commitment to do what it takes to make your business a success. That entails work and study to lay the foundation for your business. IF you are not committed, you will not do the work required. You will get sidetracked by obstacles and the trading losses will mount.

    Lack of internal conflict. Lack of internal conflict goes to both trading psychology (the resolution of internal issues) and to the quality of your commitment. When you are totally focused on trading success without internal conflict, you are then totally committed. The more focus and fewer internal conflicts, the closer you get to successful trading.

    Independent thinking. Great traders tend to be independent thinkers. They are not influenced by what their neighbors, friends, relatives, gurus or what the talking heads on Bloomberg or CNBC say or supposedly think. They eschew all influences during trading that interfere with their pursuit of consistently extracting capital from markets based on their own chosen method. That method allows the successful trader to generate low-risk trades, manage the trades to cut losses short, let profits run and have a position sizing method to help them meet their goals.

    Efficient decision making. Research shows that people have developed various decision making short-cuts that lead to inefficient decision making. In fact, a whole new area has been developed in economics called Behavioral Finance. In summary, it now appears that due to these short-cuts, people tend to be risk-prone with losses and conservative with profits. This means that people have a huge problem with following the Trader's Golden Rule: Cut losses short and let profits run. Therefore, another quality of the successful trader is he hones his decision making process to overcome the natural bias involved in inefficient decision making. IF you need to be right and have a need to seek to control the market, you are an inefficient decision maker.

    These are briefly some of the qualities required. There are others such as positive attitude, organizational skills, lack of impulsive action and intuitive ability.

    A brief word about intuitive ability: it is developed over long periods of actual trading and study of markets. It is a sixth sense about when something is wrong or different. Do you have to be intuitive to be a good trader? Absolutely not. Until you reach that point, you do need to develop skill in handling positions when something unusual happens.

    Resources. This is but an extremely brief overview of a very complex subject. Here are some additional resources I have found to be extremely helpful to me in my development as a trader. First, and this I consider to be an absolute must, get two books written by Mark Douglas: The Disciplined Trader and Trading In The Zone. Tattoo both books on the inside of your eyelids prior to entering your next trade! Secondly, Dr, Brett Steenbarger. His blog is an absolute gold mine for traders! You will not be disappointed! http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

    I would also suggest you pick up his book The Daily Trading Coach. It is not intended as a straight-through read but rather it is organized thematically dealing with various issues in trading psychology. When you run into a problem, you can go right to a probable solution. I would also recommend the work of Dr. Van K. Tharp, a very prominent trading psychologist.

    Again, most traders will skip right over all of this and that is OK! IF you chose to do that, the 5% are waiting for you. Come on in, the water is just fine!