Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on GLD (Mike Paulenoff)

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The BIG picture of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) continues to exhibit a series of higher lows and higher highs since the March 24 low at 106.34. My near-term work argues that the decline from new all-time highs at 122.45 to yesterday's low at 118.83 represents yet another pullback to a higher low.

If, indeed, a minor correction was completed yesterday, then a new upleg is in progress that should propel the GLD to higher all-time highs that projects next into the 125-26 zone. Although my protective stop at 118.70, just beneath yesterday's low, is very tight, my near-term work indicates that if yesterday's low is violated, additional weakness will be forthcoming.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on FXI (Mike Paulenoff)

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Let's notice that the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) peaked at 46.66 in November 2009 and was in the confines of a coil-like corrective pattern into the series of May lows near 36.60/25. Since early May, the FXI has carved out a 5-week basing pattern which could be the second coordinate of a larger Double Bottom formation established in February 2010.

Right now, the combination of the base formations argues for higher prices near term that project into the 41.50 area, on the way to test the multi-month resistance line in the vicinity of 44.50. Furthermore, there appears to be a reliable 15-16 week trading day cycle that bottomed in mid-May, which is exerting positive influence on prices into the first week of July.

It is with the foregoing in mind, as well as because the FXI pattern appears to be ahead of, or leading, the major U.S. equity market indices, that we are long the China equity market in our model portfolio.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on SPX (Mike Paulenoff)

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Based on my weekly technical work of the S&P 500 (SPX) as of Friday's new multi-week closing low, the price structure is poised to retest the May 25 intra-week low at 1040.78, but also should continue still lower to a next projected target of 1000. The 1000 level represents key psychological support as well as downside follow-through of 6% that approximates the magnitude of a prior decline during June 2008 (almost exactly 2 years ago) that exhibited a similar price-oscillator set-up. If 1000 is violated and sustained, then 994-990 becomes the next optimal target zone. From a weekly chart perspective, only a climb above 1107 will neutralize the current negative medium-term conditions.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.