Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Have We Begun the Final Rally? (by Avi Gilburt)

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On Tuesday night, I said we needed to maintain support over the 1394ES level in order to still view the upside as a reasonable possibility. On Wednesday we rallied off the overnight lows that held support over 1394. But the move up was an ugly pattern which seems to be best counted in waves of 3, so that we do not have to force an even more ugly count. This leads me to the conclusion that it is a possible leading diagonal. And, I have mentioned many times in the past how much I like to rely upon leading diagonals for trading purposes, but this is what the market has been giving us for 1st waves all too often.

Therefore, IF this is a leading diagonal, then either wave 2 has already completed in a very shallow manner, or we will see a much deeper wave 2, which is more typical of leading diagonals. But, if you remember the larger wave count I posted on the 60 minute chart today, the expectation was that wave 1 of wave iii was going to target the .618 extension at the 1406ES level, which is exactly what we seem to have gotten today. Therefore, based upon how we move up tomorrow, assuming we do see upside follow through, we will be targeting the 1412(1.00 extension) or 1416 (1.236 extension) levels for wave 3 of iii.

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Eye on USO (by Gilburt)

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The wave iv for USO bottomed right at the top of the wave i in this current 5 wave structure. Since that time, it completed a nice 5 wave move up, and, thus far, seems to be within a wave 2 of the next 5 wave rally. The last top we saw this past week at the 33.75 region looks most like a b-wave within that wave 2, which likely means that we will see one more pullback in a c-wave to the 33.25 region, or even a little deeper down to the 33.00 region.

I think that pullback would be a buying opportunity for a short- term trade which will take the USO back to the 35.76-36.00 region. You should either use a stop of 32.40 for this trade, or 32.60 if you would like a tighter stop. But, in truth, I really do not want to see the market below 32.90, since staying over that level gives us the confluence we are looking for to it the 35.75 level.

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