Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bearish Counts Still Dominant (by Gilburt)
As long as the market remains below the 1334 level, I cannot feel comfortable in advising anyone to hold long positions overnight, as the bearish patterns are still too dominant. I have 3 different color possibilities being presented tonight, so let’s go through them.
Yellow Count: Within the yellow count, there are actually two possibilities. The first possibility is that we completed 5 waves down from the high made yesterday and today almost completed a wave (2) retracement. What supports this count is that the initial move up off the 1294 low really counted best as a 3 wave move rather than a 5 wave move, which would classify it as an a-wave with the impulsive move up at the end of the day counted as a 5 wave c-wave which could still have a little more upside left. Additionally, if the dollar and the S&P continue to trade in identical patterns, as they have of late, then the dollar count supports the yellow (1) (2) count with wave (3) of wave v of 3 about to begin.
Apple Head Fake? (by Mike Paulenoff)
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Cycle Bottom in Gold (by Mike Paulenoff)
Keep in mind that today's spike upside reversal in gold comes 3-4 weeks prior to my expectation of a cycle bottom, and that under normal circumstances such a situation would argue for another loop down to revisit the $1530/25 area after this initial recovery rally period.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Heart of Wave Down (by Avi Gilburt)
These are the types of trade set ups we like to see. Today, we were able to narrow down a short trade set up to within one point of our ideal target top of 1343.50ES (with the market topping at 1342.50), and provide a target of almost 20 points lower at the 1325.50ES level.
Based upon the current count, it does seem as those we are in the heart of a wave iii of a larger wave (5) of yellow 5 of the c-wave of a wave (4). For this to follow through, the market should remain below 1332, and MUST remain below 1334, which would then provide us with the target of 1320ES as the wave (5) of iii, as you can see on the 3 minute chart. We then normally see a wave iv bounce up to the 1.00 extension at 1328/29, followed by a drop down to the 1315-1318ES region. Normally, I like to target the 2.00 extension. However, since we have an overlapping 1.382 extension on the 60 minute ES chart for a wave c target, which coincides with a 1.764 extension on the 3 minute chart, I do like that target much better. My alternative target will be the 2.618 extension on the 3 minute chart, which coincides with the 1.618 larger extension for the wave c at 1306ES.
So, for tomorrow, I am expecting a potential bottom to this c-wave, which is also within the Fibonacci timing window we mentioned in the Weekend Analysis. At that point, the week after this bottom will clarify if the markets are heading up to make new highs (with a move over the 1352ES level) or if we have topped and are only moving up in a wave 4 of a larger degree 5 wave decline from the recent market top.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net.
