Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bullish on Oil, though Not Energy Stocks (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Oil is considerably higher today, as geopolitical tensions continue, and despite despite yesterday's larger-than-expected inventory build in oil and gasoline, and unseasonably warm weather across much of the nation. (Editor's note – obviously this was written earlier today before the embargo announcement!)

Increasingly, it appears that all of the action off of the Jan 4 high at 103.74 into this morning's price at 101.94 in NYMEX crude oil futures has carved out a high-level bullish coil pattern. When complete, this pattern should resolve into a new up-leg that propels nearby NYMEX oil to new highs projected into the 106-108 area.

At this juncture, only a decline that breaks yesterday's low at 100.55 will compromise the pattern.

While this is bullish for crude oil and its associated ETFs like the US Oil Fund (USO) and ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil (UCO), the equity energy names like Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Schlumberger (SLB) look weak, making the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) an attractive ETF.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart Analysis of BAC (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Apart from the fact that Bank of America (BAC) is up 3% the day after it hit a low 4.93 yesterday, the lowest level since March 2009, let's notice that current strength has not inflicted any meaningful technical damage to the nearest-term downtrend — at least not yet.

BAC must hurdle and sustain above 5.23 to inflict preliminary technical damage. However, upside continuation that climbs above 5.29/30 to hurdle my 30-period exponential moving average is needed to really get my attention on the long side of BAC.

That EMA tracks directional price movement very closely, and in the recent past has thwarted upside continuation on all (failed) rally efforts. Inability of BAC to hurdle the 30-period EMA will keep me neutral to bearish.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.