Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on JVA (by TraderHR)

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Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (JVA) last week reported better net income than for the same period last year, and the stock jumped more than 60% in just two days, reaching a new all time high at 15.50.  Since then the stock has pulled back to the 12 area and consolidated in a bullish flag formation, which was broken today on increasing volume. This suggests we could see a breakout above last week's highs and a move toward next target in the 16.00-18.00 area.  Preferred entry (buy stop) price is at 14.55, with a stop at 13.30.

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Originally published on TraderHR.com.

Downward Pressure on Oil (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Frankly, there are so many cross-currents influencing the markets at any given time, uncertainty clearly has the upper hand — even when we think that new information or decisions are alleviating some of the uncertainty.

Case in point:  crude oil prices.   Is downward pressure positive for equities (for obvious reasons: i.e., the consumer gets a "tax cut"), or negative because it might reflect a serious slow down in U.S. and global economic growth (read: China demand)?

I don't know the answer, but I am leaning towards the latter scenario right now.

Looking at the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures chart we see that prices continue to follow their technical script, which called for a breakdown from the four-week coil pattern towards an optimal target zone of 90.00-88.00.

So far, the plunge from the coil has hit a confirmed low of 92.12 earlier this morning. Barring a sustained climb above 97.25, my pattern and momentum work will continue to point to 90.00-88.00.

Whether or not downward pressure on NYMEX oil (and to a lesser extent Brent) will translate into headwinds for Exxon (XOM), Schlumberger (SLB), ConocoPhillips (COP), Halliburton (HAL), Chevron (CVX) and the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) remains to be seen.

That said, with the possible exception of CVX, all of the above-mentioned energy names exhibit very toppy intermediate-term chart patterns.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Monsanto on the Move (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Agricultural product manufacturers of fertilizer and chemicals would appear to be a reasonable place to allocate some funds through the summer months in an otherwise unfriendly environment for the equity market — provided the technical work supports such a commitment.

My near- and medium-term work both argue that Monsanto (MON) ended a major bear phase in July 2010 at 44.61 and since has carved out a constructive and very promising pattern that should continue higher towards a confrontation with key two-year resistance at 73.80 next.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Exxon Under Pressure (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The big kahuna of integrated oils is looking very toppy and very heavy. As we speak, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is under pressure that is probing key support between 80.00 and 78.80, which if violated should trigger downside continuation towards a test of its sharply rising 200 DMA, now at 75.54. In that XOM represents about 12% of the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG), a break of important Mar-Jun support should spike the DUG towards 32.00 quickly.

At this juncture, only a climb that sustains above 81.90 will neutralize my near-term negative outlook.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.