Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Oil Ultrashort DUG (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The most recent downleg in the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) from 31.93 to 25.73 looks like a completed bearish structure.  The fact that prices reversed sharply to the upside today after first hitting a new low suggests strongly that the DUG hit downside exhaustion at under 25.80 earlier today.

For the time being, DUG is in the midst of a run-of-the-mill recovery rally. That said, the energy sector is so overbought and vulnerable to a period of retrenchment that this run-of-the-mill recovery rally (in the inverse DUG) could easily and quickly morph into a powerful countertrend rout, as holders of long energy positions take some of their very substantial profits.

In terms of the DUG, my initial upside target zone is 27.60-28.00.

 

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Natural Gas Chart Analysis (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Apart from whether or not President Obama actually lays out a natural gas program in today's speech, my technical work on iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Idx ETN (GAZ) is "warning" me to expect higher prices regardless.

Let's notice that the March upleg from 6.85 to 9.05 has returned to its 50% support plateau (this morning), where it pivoted to the upside into a potent rally to 8.35 so far. Right now, my near-term work in natural gas futures, the U.S. Natural Gas ETF (UNG), and GAZ indicates that a new upleg likely started at this morning's lows.

A climb that sustains above 8.40 will be the first confirmation that a new upleg is in progress.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.