Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Charts on QCOM & MSFT (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Qualcomm (QCOM) is up about 2.5% today and after nearly a month of sideways digestion off of its Sep 30 high at 45.75 into Tuesday's low at 43.21 appears to have finally resumed its underlying uptrend from the July low at 31.51.

If such a scenario continues to unfold, then QCOM should be in the early portion of a new upleg that projects to the 48.00 area next. At this juncture, only a decline that breaks the Oct 26 low at 43.21 will invalidate the bullish scenario.

We also revisit our Microsoft (MSFT) analysis from yesterday. Based purely on the multi-month developing base-like chart pattern heading into yesterday's earnings report, we noted the price reaction should propel MSFT towards a test of a key resistance plateau at 26.25/40 extending up to 27.00, with the measured optimal targets projecting to 27.00 and then in the vicinity of 28.25.

MSFT results beat estimates, and the stock climbed from yesterday's close of 26.28 to a high of 27.20 this morning.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on UNG (by Mike Paulenoff)

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This morning's up-gap open in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG) could be a very significant, constructive signal after yesterday's new low, followed by an upside reversal from an extremely oversold condition. So far, the less than 24-hour upmove in the UNG from an all-time new low at 5.20 to today's intraday high at 5.48 (+5.4%) has the "right look" of the conclusion of a bearish wedge pattern and the initiation of a new recovery uptrend period.

Of course, the UNG has very heavy lifting directly ahead if it is to provide technical confirmation of a significant upside reversal — namely, continued strength that hurdles and sustains above 5.70 and then 6.05 for starters. That said, any whiff of some unforeseen bullish fundamental factor, like a bigger than expected inventory drawdown, has the potential to terrify the entrenched short positions.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on Shanghai (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The Shanghai Composite Index rocketed to new post-July highs today, which should continue to benefit names likes Arch Coal (ACI), Walter Energy (WLT), and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX).

After consolidating for four sessions right around its August 2009-October 2010 down trendline, today the Shanghai index accelerated to the upside to 3,051 in what looks like the start of a new upleg that could be heading for a test of its April high at 3182, or another +4.3%.

Meanwhile, the SPX hit a new post- July high today at 1196, possibly on the way to a test of its Apr. high, up 2.5% from current levels. At this juncture, only a decline that breaks 2,950 will argue that the Sept. 20th upleg in the Shanghai is complete. Finally, let's also notice that RSI for neither index has confirmed today's new highs, which is a warning signal that the Jul-Oct upmove likely is getting a bit long-winded.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.