Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Shanghai Move Could Spur SPX (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The Shanghai Composite remains in "spring position" ahead of a potential upside breakout from its May-September base pattern. Let's notice that the recent price action of both the SH COMP and the S&P 500 is starting to look similar — that is, a rally at the end of August into early September followed by a sideways, bullish consolidation area that should resolve itself to the upside in a thrust towards a test of the 200 DMA (2763) in the SH COMP and a confrontation with the June-Aug. highs (1129/31) in the SPX.

Still, from my technical perspective, the China Index is leading the SPX. If the SH COMP hurdles and sustains above 2705, then it should begin to fulfill the upside potential off of its May-Sept. base pattern — at 2930/80 — which should provide support for upside continuation in the SPX as well.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

SLV Chart Analysis (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV) continues to act well. The series of higher highs and higher lows off of the August 24 low at 17.39 continues today, with the SLV making new rally highs at 19.58. Let's also notice that the SLV has experienced two intraday sell-offs — to 19.23 early this morning, which preserved Friday's pullback low at 19.07, and again later this morning to 19.30, which held 7 cents above the earlier low.

The ability of the SLV to create a higher-low price configuration intraday after a 13% upmove in two weeks is the sign of a still-powerful underlying uptrend. As long as today's two-successive pullback lows remain intact, the SLV will be in very good technical shape and points to higher prices in the upcoming hours. My next optimal target zone is 19.90-20.00.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on Oil (Mike Paulenoff)

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My pattern work is warning me that all of the action in crude oil off of the Aug 25 low at $70.76 is a digestion period of the major downleg from the Aug 4 high at $82.97 to the Aug 25 low at $70.76.

If that proves to be an accurate description of the price movement, then it should be labeled as a "Bear Flag" type of formation, which when complete will resolve itself to the downside with the initiation of a new downleg. The downleg should break both the Aug low ($70.76) and the longer-term support line from the Jan 2009 low, which cuts across the price axis around $71.15.

Such a violation of support should trigger serious long liquidation in crude oil.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.