Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Oh, Great. Tim Has Another FOREX Analog.
I've done plenty of analog posts in the past. For some reason, Slopers seem to bristle at analogs. I'm not sure why; I'm pretty good at them. My GDX and EUR/USD analogs have both been considered "brilliant"………"breathtakingly prescient"…..and "inspired." The fact I can attribute these quotes to myself should take nothing away from their gravity.
My well-honed eyes noticed another analog today with the New Zealand Kiwi cross-rate (NZD/USD). Take note of the 2007-2008 period, shown below, and the tinted areas:
Triple-Bullish ETF Shows Where We Are At
Grate Expectations
When I reflect back on the very best trading days of my life, they almost all have one thing in common: they started off as completely normal and, often, hum-drum.
In other words, it's not like the opening bell rang and it was obvious that the day was going to be a bonanza. It might start off with a small profit – or even a small loss – but, tick by tick, accrue into a terrifically profitable day.
On the other hand, when I think a fantastic day is forthcoming, it usually ends up lousy. I have a feeling today is just such a day.
Yesterday afternoon, I was having a terrific time at the San Francisco Zoo with my little girl. The most peculiar part of my visit was in the afternoon when I was, in the span of moments, watching the Euro plunge on my iPhone while observing a hitherto cute baby gorilla engage in the acts of (a) making a huge puddle of urine on the concrete; and then (b) slurping it up.
There's got to be a parable in there somewhere.
In any case, with the ES down 19 points, the Euro down about a full percentage point, and gold (my long) holding up decently, I had big dollar signs in my eyes as I went to bed last night.
Well, this morning I was in for a rude awakening:
(1) The Euro has recaptured almost all of its lost ground;
(2) The ES and NQ had dispatched with most of their losses (and, as I am typing this, the ES is well into the green);
(3) Precious metals and the miners were weak, and those constituted my long positions;
(4) One of my short positions, Vertex (VRTX) was up 60% pre-market, which I covered at a nasty loss. (I will note that my individual shorts usually count for less than 1% of my portfolio, so even train wrecks like this aren't that damaging – – but that doesn't take away from the suckitude). Just to add salt to the wound, the regular-hours trading was up "only" 40%, so I shot myself in the foot by trading before the open. Ugh!
I have beat a hasty retreat back to 50% committed (all in shorts; the rest in cash). I am, at the moment, down 0.6% on the day versus a flat market. A manageable loss, to be sure, but all the same – – I can pretty much assure myself that my dreams of a Monday bonanza have gone the way of the dodo.
Oh, to close on a somewhat positive note. As some of you recall, I re-opened my options trading account a few weeks ago, just for the hell of it. I am pleased to say I am up over 50% on that with what have been very straightforward trades. The latest was a block of FXE puts, which I sold this morning. Perhaps the tiny size of the account makes my disposition toward it more "pure" as a trader.
Following up on the Miners Spreadsheet
On April 27th, I did a video speculating on how high the miners (GDX) would bounce before presenting another good shorting opportunity. In it, I concluded we would bounce to 49.17 before beginning the much larger fall.
Well, we just kept fallling. Indeed, I bought GDX yesterday, only to close it at a loss this morning. A new short position today repaired the damage, and I ended the day buying GDX again (and, with much larger size, GLD).
