Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Friday Tumble or Bargain-Hunt?

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I'm going to forego a video update tonight and give a quick overview of the indexes the old-fashioned way (incidentally, thank you to the handful of folks who did click Donate, prompted from last night's video; it is much appreciated).

Let me start with the closest I'm going to come to a "bullish" scenario (which is why I bought a very big slug of SPY after the close………just in case). This scenario provides for a bounce at this point to approximately the highest levels seen earlier in December. Below is the $HUI analog to illustrate this. Such a push would be the last bout of strength before big-time weakness kicked in.

1215-finalhui

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The Analog Unfolds Gloriously

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Way back on September 7th, a Sloper by the screen name of Phantom Capital thoughtfully sent me an analog, richly detailed, as to what he believed the market would do. I published this analog on the blog, and since that time, it has performed astonishingly well.

I have been exchanging emails with Phantom, and he and I see eye-to-eye on the market's future. I submit to you my belief that:

(a) we will indeed see a "from 13 to 14" drop, irrespective of what that traitorous douchebag Bernanke says tomorrow;

(b) once we approach 1000 (let's call it 1030 or so), The Powers That Be will issue forth their final, desperate attempt to save the world. Everyone will buy into it again, lifting the market somewhat. Because, Slopers notwithstanding, people are pinheads and always think it's different this time;

(c) Around March or so next year, TPTB will have lifted the market high enough to permit Facebook to IPO. This will be the last major IPO for a long time to come. The Facebook IPO, in my opinion, will almost pinpoint the top of 2012.

(d) After that point, all holy hell will break loose, and Slope will ascend to heaven in a blaze of chart-filled glory amidst wailing and gnashing of teeth. Yea, verily so.

And that's all I've got to say about that.

1212-roadmap

New Analog, If You Dare….

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I have had enough damage done from marrying myself to an analog that I approach them with caution these days. Just like Elliott Waves, analogs represent for me enough disappointment that I view them with suspicion. The difference, though, is that in my opinion Elliott Waves are greatly for explaining what happened (after the fact), whereas analogs can actually have some utility for predictive value.

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