Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Cloying Fog

By -

I'm a realist. I try to see things as they are. Given the nature of the world we live in – – or at least the United States – – this puts my disposition at odds with a meaningful portion of the population. I'm not so much a permabear as a permarealist, but the effect is often the same.

Decades ago, when I worked at Apple, they would spend all kinds of money on "inspirational" speakers and expensive "corporate bonding" outings. As Apple fellow Alan Kay once remarked back then, "What Apple needs is fewer off-sites and more insights." How right he was.

Last night, I finished Bright-Sided, whose subtitle pretty much tells you what the book is about:

0113-bright_sided 

 I thought the book was terrific. I enjoyed it, and I strongly recommend it.

Given the doe-eyed, botox-based, smiley-faced culture that some Americans strive to create, this book was truly refreshing. Our nation has produced a hoard of both religious and secular charlatans whose mission is to separate you from your money, but whose ostensible purpose is to teach you The Secret, create "abudance" in your life, and giving you the power to "manifest" anyone and anything you desire. It's a giant, steaming pile of crap.

As the line from Hannah and Her Sisters goes: "If Jesus came back and saw what they were doing in His name, He'd never stop throwing up." Amen to that.

I've seen this Osteen character's books now and then, with his curly-haired mullet and pearly-white teeth, but I never wanted to pick one up. Having read Bright-Sided, which mentions Osteen's Lakewood Church prominently, I was curious, so I went to their web site. This, seriously, was the first thing I saw:

0113-comes 

 

Well! No wonder it's such a popular place.

Seriously. Buy the book. Embrace reality for what it is. Make the occasionally bits of happiness that truly do appear in life genuine, deep, and memorable. Mindless positive thinking is an empty lie.

Quote of the Month

By -

After seeing it mentioned many times in the comments section, I finally bought and started reading Fooled by Randomness, which I am enjoying tremendously. I just finished Section 1 of the book.

As I was reading it last night, a quote on page 126 just about knocked me off my feet (and would have, were it not for the fact I was reading it in bed). It is as follows:

A theory that does not present a set of conditions under which it would be considered wrong would be termed charlatanism – it would be impossible to reject otherwise. Why? Because the astrologist can always find a reason to fit the past event, by saying that Mars was probably in line but not too much so (likewise to me a trader who does not have a point that would make him change his mind is not a trader).

Can you imagine what two words instantly sprang to my mind? They rhyme with "Melliott Crave." Not to say that I've reached any kind of final conclusion personally, but I've got to say again, those words really resonated in a way that I bet a lot of readers here can understand.

Impressions from TBTF

By -

I finally finished reading Too Big To Fail, and I'd probably give it an 8 on a scale of 1 to 10 (it doesn't come close to James Stewart's Den of Thieves, about the Boesky-Millken scandal). Sorkin's challenge in writing TBTF, I think, was that there was a cast of about 100 different characters, whereas Den of Thieves really just focused on a few.

From some of the really big characters in the book, I got the following impressions:

  • Henry Paulson – I came away thinking his motives were actually pretty much in the right place. He had already made a gigantic fortune, and he was really trying to save a system he thought had core value. Also – – he throws up a lot (the stress really got to him).
  • Tim Geithner – Seems to be all business. I'm not sure if this guy has ever cracked a smile in his life. A firm negotiator throughout.
  • Ben Bernanke – It's surprising what a minor role Ben has in this book; by and large, he is seem as far more academic (yet still very respected) than the others, but Paulson uses him, some degree, as a shill.
  • Llloyd Blankfein – Not surprisingly – Lloyd lloves lloot. That's all that need be said.
  • Jamie Dimon – Hard-ass businessman and shrewd negotiator.
  • Sheila Bair - The book tends to view her through the Paulson/Geithner lens, which characterizes her as more of a bureaucrat/poser than the other parties in the book. She's also pretty much the only woman prominently featured, with the exception of Erin Callan, the Lehman CFO, who is portrayed as kind of a MILF-y incompetent).
  • Christopher "I have no lower teeth" Cox – Every bit as feeble and ineffectual as you would guess.
  • Dick Fuld – Actually pretty sad. He comes off as more of a victim than a villain, and he tried desperately to save his firm. This guy is no saint, but he definitely got the very short end of the stick in September 2008. I wouldn't blame the guy for being bitter for the rest of his life.

1206-fuld 

Book Review: An Empire of Wealth (by bilabng888)

By -

Published in 2004, An Empire of Wealth by John Steele Gordon explores the economic history of the United States from Henry Hudson sailing the Half Moon up the Hudson
River
in 1609 to the terrorist attacks of September 11th,
2001.  Mr. Gordon’s premise is to show
that America
was formed primarily out of a profit-seeking motive and became the first nation
to achieve superpower status via economic pathways as opposed to military aggression.

An Empire of Wealth

An Empire of Wealth
provides a fascinating record of our nation’s multitudinous speculative booms
and busts, technological revolutions, Wall Street shenanigans, corporate
espionage, persistent legislative ineptitude, experiments with having and not
having a central bank, our rocky history with the gold standard, Yankee
Ingenuity, fluctuations between massive budget surpluses to deficits, and
countless other stories of industrial heroism and nefarious greed.  Empire does an excellent job of
covering America’s
epic development as an economic superpower.

While Empire is not a “how
to” book for a trader, it provides incredible insight into the history and
character of the American economy; the playing field on which we all competing.  More importantly, Empire thoroughly explores
the development of the great entity of Wall Street.  To know one’s history is to better understand
one’s future.

For example, Empire shows
that in the 1640’s, during the formative years of Nieuw Amsterdam (now Manhattan), over 18 languages
were spoken, the seal consisted a beaver (the main commodity being traded)
surrounded by wampum (Indian currency), and it took the settlers 17 years to
erect the first church.  An international
collection of people focused first on trade and second on all other
pursuits.  It appears not much has
changed in Manhattan
since its original founding.

Mr. Gordon walks the reader
through countless booms and busts, and in by doing so, he shows us how
repetitive the American economic cycle is. 
We currently are all trying to trade through “unprecedented times,” but
after reading Empire, one realizes our current environment is nothing
new.  With this understanding of history,
a trader can achieve some level of serenity and be able to better predict where
we are going.

Empire provides a solid
compilation of the causes and effects of the Great Depression.  To drive home the point that “everything old
is new again,” let two lesser known facts from the 1930’s be brought to
light.  First, in the fall of 1932 the
yield on Treasury Bills went negative. 
Secondly, in 1938, Richard Whitney and Company, led by the former
President of the New York Stock Exchange, was discovered to be engaging in a
massive embezzlement scheme to defraud all of its investors.  6,000 people gathered to watch Mr. Madoff
Whitney be led away in handcuffs and sent to Sing Sing.  Sound familiar?

Read An Empire of Wealth.  It humbles the reader by showing that we are
all just one of the hundreds of millions of people who have participated in the
American economy while instilling a terrific sense of pride that we have the
opportunity to compete in the most dynamic and colorful economic story the
world has ever seen.