Baby Bear thoughtfully sent me the chart below, which I’ve also seen elsewhere. The yellow tint is my own.

My point is a simple one: as alluring as the data from the past seventy years can be, we’re living in such an incredibly unprecedented set of circumstances, I’m not so sure seasonality is useful. The portion I’ve tinted aligns with the most horrible part we bears have endured this year, June 15 through August 15. On June 14th, what kind of insight would this chart have provided to us about what was coming? Absolutely none. On the contrary, it would have been completely misleading. So, with all humility, and a respect for potentially self-paradoxical irony, it’s different this time.