Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Fib Timing Update (by eMiniSchool.com)
We did a post in March saying there was a timing high coming into the market. The count wave 233 bars high to high and 161 bars from low to high. Both 233 and 161 are important Fib Numbers.
Post is here: http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/very-important-market-update/
The market came down off the high but nothing like what should occur from a major timing high. In reality we are just still sitting at the same high. The market tried to break higher but could not. So on one had it is showing strength by not just crashing off the high but it is not showing real strength because we have not broke the timing high.
The only thing to do is go down time frames from the Weekly chart and wait for a true break of a bullish pattern which we have not had as of the close of Friday. From the high of last week the pullback is exact symmetry support so as of the close the market is still bullish on all time frames but that could change if we break down next week.
I am not saying if we take out last weeks low I am bearish because there is still Daily support around the 2590 – 2550 on the NQ which is still a buy zone on the Daily chart. At levels like this the market likes to suck everyone in short to then short squeeze. Maybe the short squeeze does not take out the highs or maybe it does it is still too soon to tell.
I am playing it as the leg down is still counter trend and watch out for a short squeeze.
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Important Market Timing Update (by eMiniSchool.com)
Tribulation over Summation
Probably the most troubling chart I've seen recently in the NYSE summation index. Over the past several weeks, what one would have expected would have been a cycle down in equities (take note of past instances, marked with arrows). Instead, the market has flipped the bird to all bears and pushed to levels not seen for years.
Now that the down-cycle is nearing completion and about to swoop higher, I wonder if this will only serve to supercharge the market further. Over the past year, the NYSE summation index has only been our friend a couple of times but has helped out the bulls almost without fail. I guess a few tens of trillions of dollars in new liquidity can have magical powers over what were once comprehensible markets.
Survivorship Bias (by Consistently Incredulous)
I tripped across a Standard & Poors announcement last week that CBOE Holdings (CBOE) will replace Temple-Inland (formerly TIN) in the S&P MidCap 400 index as International Paper (IP) (S&P 500) completed its acquisition of Temple-Inland on February 13th. This reminded me of a good Seeking Alpha post I read last year about Survivorship Bias in Index Performance.
I highly recommend the full post; but in a nutshell, survivorship bias in the indices:
“Specifically, in the process of rebalancing (selecting and or deselecting stocks) the indices it is the tendency for failed companies to be excluded from indices because they 1. No longer exist, 2. Their market capitalization has fallen or 3. Their industry is in decline (which likely caused the first two reasons); this is considered Type 1, survivor bias. Inherent in this type of bias is the error you make in just counting the survivors.”
