Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Got BAC

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Good morning, Slopers. Well, the wind continues to fully inflate the sails of the U.S.S. Bullish, as the world’s most protected and enriched “free” enterprise sector, the big banks, continues to produce excellent earnings. It’s sort of like celebrating that the Army and Marines secured funding for the year. It’s kind of a guarantee. In any event, the /ES has pushed based the Fibonacci retracement (red line) and is sporting a very saucer dish, ready to rock higher.

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Convergence and Revelation

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There are three meditative activities in my life. One, when I’m walking my dogs; two, when I’m in bed at the end of the day getting ready for sleep, and three, when it’s warm enough, when I swim. This time, it was the dog walk.

You see, whether I do well or poorly on a given day, I am in a constant state of judging myself. Even during very successful periods, I’ll ask myself: what do I think of my behavior? When I do poorly, of course, I judge myself even more critically, trying to reason out what I could have done better.

Given what transpired over the past week, I was in a particularly contemplative mood. After trading was over on Friday, March 24th, my portfolio was sporting a modest profit for the quarter. A week later, after the close on the 31st, it had turned into a modest loss. It isn’t a good feeling, and although the delineations that mark one quarter to the next are arbitrary in the context of the flow of trading, it’s still upsetting to work hard for three months and have less than nothing to show for it.

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A Dozen Months

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With Q1 2023 behind us, I offer below a dozen charts (almost all of them ETFs) presented in as monthly bars. This very crude granularity allows one to see in very simple terms what the long-term personality of each financial instrument is at present. I’ve put my remarks for each item in the caption area of every chart.

My view continues to be that commodities will lead the way lower Q4 2022 was the start of this breakdown, and we made more progress in Q1. Energy continues to be my most dominant short sector.

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Scruyulemon

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Well, here is EXACTLY the kind of screw-up I’ve only executed a few billion times in my trading life. Yesterday morning, following LULU’s gigantic surge, I went long puts on the stock. By day’s end, the puts were up about 5%, and I intended to hang on to them for at least a few weeks. This morning, however, during the insane run-up in stock prices, I panicked and dumped them at a loss. I did so at the EXACT millisecond they peaked. I’m disgusted with myself.

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