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A tip o’ the paw to premium member pduncanj, who was kind enough to point out something to us that I hadn’t realized: today’s SPY peak matched with astonishing perfection the Fibonacci retracement (78.6%) going all the way back to the Halloween bottom. Here’s the daily chart:
How relieved I am to have had the good sense to detect that, considering how a certain person was being a total douchenozzle privately this weekend, it meant something bad was coming. Yeah, I’m a chartist, but I’m also partly human. I can read people. TSLA is getting absolutely bombed, and I’m delighted my family can stand at a safe distance and watch the carnage. Those Fibonaccis have been working beautifully for MONTHS.
A little over a week ago, the Russell 2000 small caps reached escape velocity and were finally able to free themselves from the clutches of a two-year price range. Over the course of the most recent 16 trading hours, most of this “escape” has been erased, but this could still be considered a bullish setup (very bullish, in fact) IF prices stabilize above the Fib and don’t slip below it. On the other hand, a failure of the Fib would represent a failed bullish breakout and suggest we’re simply back into the old range.
The mega-rally in small caps has returned us to an historically important area of reversal. These Fibonaccis have had power for years.
I have every selfish reason for this to just keep going up forever, but as a chartist, I’ve got to say that the $257-$260 level represents a tremendous barrier to Tesla, short-term. I would remind you that earnings come out after the close of June 23rd, and the “big Robotaxi event” is scheduled for August 8th.
