Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

One-Sixth Remains

By -

With the first ten months of the year now out of the way, a mere one-sixth of 2023 remains. Considering how absolutely insane this year has been already in all arenas (financial, geopolitical, legal, you name it), one can only tremble to consider what the next two months might hold.

Rather than dare speculate on the dozens of weighty matters already vexing the globe, I will simply focus on an octet of cash index charts along a common theme: the notion that each of them has hammered out a formidable and well-formed topping pattern and that, preposterous as it might seem to the mainstream pundits (and flying in the face of endless-cited bullish seasonality), it is within the realm of possibility that new lows for 2023 could be on hand for at least a few major indexes.

For simplicity’s sake, the format of each of the charts below is consistent. Specifically:

  • There are a few basic drawn objects to highlight what I consider important patterns and levels of support/resistance;
  • In some cases, a pink semi-circle offers a boundary for what I consider to be a reversal pattern;
  • A green tinted area approximates the important overhead supply for any given index and, thus, an area that should be quite resistant to easy price ascent;
  • A red rectangle shows the potential “drop zone” for the balance of the year. To be clear, it’s virtually impossible to know what a stock or index is going to do the next day, let alone the next two months, so do not interpret this red rectangle as some kind of firm prediction. Instead, it represents the prospective risk area through which prices could move, based on an approximate measured move or some meaningful support level beneath price presents.

Having said all that, let’s go through the indexes one by one. We begin with the all-important S&P 500:

(more…)

Cover Curse Cruelly Continues

By -

I knew it. I knew it, I knew it, I knew it. All human history shows the same thing. Get on the cover of a magazine or, even worse, have a major book come out about you, and you are HOSED. I have subtly put some arrows marking the PUBLICATION DATE of Elon’s biography. Notice anything happen since then? Yeah, it rhymes with “market cap downs hundreds of billions of dollars.”

(more…)