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Navigating a market this wild can get exhausting. I’m typing this just moments before the opening bell, and I’m ready to search out a hammock. In any case, I’d rather have a market like this than just about every moment of the decade prior.
Keep a close eye on banks, financials, and brokerages. Look how interesting the recent activity on the financials ETF has been intraday:
Let me set aside my permabearishness and say that I think financials are primed for a bounce here. Here is XLF:
This is the break that I and the two other surviving equity bears on the planet have been anticipating. Financials have broken the trendline established by the criminal intervention in the market Steve Mnuchin executed on December 26th. Now things get more interesting.
I have a couple of technical study sets called Max Sensitivity and Min Sensitivity. As you might guess, the “max” one tends to be very volatile. I was curious, however, since my belief is that banks are weakening, how the “min” study set looked with a couple of major financial funds. Here is XLF:
A comment cleaner while I have a moment………..the ol’ “Tim travels internationally, so the market falls” rule seems to be working like a charm. I’d also like to emphasize how financials, a crucial component of this more-fragile-than-people-think market, is ready to turn lower.
