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As a follow-up to last night’s post about gap-sealing, I wanted to turn our attention to the two big crypto charts and check in on the Animal Spirits.
After the dramatic failure at 1705 last Friday (arrow below), Ethereum and the whole crypto space went into a free-fall. Since that time, it has hammered out a perfectly-formed inverted H&S pattern. This, for the bulls, should be the most encouraging chart around, since it speaks to a meaningful push higher in the final week of 2022’s first half.
Our old friend IYR has rallied about 6%, and it is close enough to its gap to draw me in again. I’ve acquired October $99 puts on this, and if it keeps going up, I’ll just keep buying more.
We’re all aware of Cathie Wood’s horrible Ark “investments”, which were nothing more than her scurrying around chasing whatever stocks the boys in /wsb were infatuated with. Well, it worked out great in 2020 and 2021, but it has been catastrophic since then, and her desperate attempts to turn things around by mewing the word “Innovation!” at each of the 37 interviews she has every day of the year hasn’t helped.
I would respectfully suggest you keep an eye on these gaps closing as an exhaustion point for the brief recovery Ms. Wood is enjoying.
Someone on Slope reminded me that the last time we were starting a counter-trend rally, I presented a series of ETFs with some sensible target prices for resistance. I have done that below, and in every case I am simply highlighting the Friday/Monday price gap (AKA the low from Friday). These are the key levels to watch for meaningful reversals, assuming this counter-trend bounce isn’t as insanely robust as some of my peers are saying (like 4400 on the /ES…….)
After so many stocks had lost 90% or more of their value, I figured that their bounce would accomplish pretty much one thing: fill a major gap. The poster child for this was Palantir, formerly based here in Palo Alto, which had plunged from about $45 to about $7 in a matter of months. It has bounced mightily, but it sealed its gap with just three PENNIES to spare. I’d say that’s good enough!
