Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

CPI Could End the Bull Run (by LZ)

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The CPI report on Thursday might be a snoozer hitting expectations of 0.2 percent. If it comes in higher, bears might gain an edge on the market by looking at the Cleveland Fed’s model and crude oil moving forward. 

Nowcasting

I’ve been following the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model for the past year. It hasn’t been terribly accurate, consistently coming in on the high side as disinflation kicked in. The past two years of data shows they lag the trend as shown by this chart from MacroMicro. The Cleveland Fed’s model is consistently low when inflation is rising and consistently high when inflation is falling.

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Slowly, Then All At Once

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No one has ever asked, but some may be wondering what my interest in /wsb is all about. I simply see it as a unique subculture on the web where young wanna-be traders (who are much closer to degenerate gamblers) convene and throw nonsense around. Sometimes it’s amusing. Occasionally it’s tragic.

This go-around, it’s a bit closer to the latter. I stumbled upon a chap who apparently had his luck YOLOing his way into hundreds of thousands of dollars in gains. Given the insane run-up in crappy stocks from January through July, it’s no surprise. He knew what he was doing was reckless, but he got a huge charge out of it, and he made a lot more money than he lost.

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The Ascendant Blue Collar

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To those in America in their late teens or early 20s. To those graduating high school. To those in college. To those considering a career. I have one simple, plain thing to say………….

Learn to be a plumber. Or an electrician. Or a carpenter. Learn a trade. Dial the clock back to the 1950s when being a tradesman of some kind was an honorable, solidly middle-class professional with which you could support a family. You could be proud at the end of the day of what you did and whom you helped.

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PREMIUM: The Fifteen Year Echo

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