Here’s a centuries-long perspective of interest rates, showing that, in spite of the relative explosion of rates higher, money basically gets cheaper to borrow over the span of modern history.
The Long-Term Cost of Money
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Bonds, As I Mentioned……
Truly, keep a close eye on TLT. A failure of the horizontal would be a big deal for multiple asset classes.
Bond Wave
Bonds have been range-bound since mid-November. That’s nine full months of meandering in this sinewave. I’d keep a close eye on that lower boundary. Break it, and Even Higher Interest Rates are clearly being signaled, thanks to Yellen’s tremendously generous gift to her banking friends in mid-March.
PREMIUM: Warning in Bonds (by LZ)
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The Rate-Sensitive Crowd
I’ve mentioned the crucial importance of the interest-sensitive ETFs – – as the boys in Gainesville often said, these bond markets are “equities in drag” and are sometimes prescient about future stock direction. In any case, they’ve done an about-face from importance horizontal resistance levels:
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