Judging from this 15-year interest rate chart, I’d say that homebuyers are going to be in a much better position to buy in a year or two, since rates should be dramatically lower.
Mortgage Rates Heading Lower
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Refinancing Ahoy!
The pattern isn’t complete, but I’ve got to say, what’s going on with mortgages looks an awful look like a very well-formed H&S top. I’d say there’s a good chance much lower mortgage rates are ahead.
Immediate Reaction
The totally-expected 25bps rate cut has been announced, and for now, the market couldn’t care less. Here’s the minute bar of the /NQ which has been grinding around a tiny range for hours.
Bond Failure
You won’t hear me talking about bonds going into a bull market anymore. The chart is simply too broken, and this actually makes a certain amount of sense, because inflation and higher interest rates are indeed on the way, and that doesn’t align with a bond bull market anyway.
Moderated De-rate
As you all know, Powell made quite a scene with his 50 bps cut last month although, oddly, rates have been going UP lately, I suppose because the fact that the U.S. will be healthy, prosperous, and able to pay back its debts with interest isn’t exactly something you can put in the Bible. Ultimately, though, it does look like rates are ready to roll over if the rounded top can be completed. Here is the T-Bond:
