Interesting summation of a recent British academic study:

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I hope this post isn’t too depressing. I am using it almost like my trading journal as I think you may get something out of my lessons the market is teaching me this week (even if all you get is some schadenfreude). As I’ve said in the past many times, I don’t know for certain what will happen in the markets. In fact, I am often wrong. So instead of being monodirectional, I lay out potential paths which I may see probable and play accordingly. (Side note: In this way, my approach to markets actually is my approach to poker. I was going to write up a post about poker itself and its translational lessons to trading, but didn’t think anyone would be interested enough or know enough about poker to get much out of it.)
The intent is so I make good money when I am right and don’t lose my shirt when I am wrong. Well, this past week was one where I was very, very wrong. It happens often enough, but it hurts when the words that come out of my mouth (or in this case that I type in my notes) are not followed by my actions. I reviewed my notes from this past week and it was almost funny in a very cynical kind of way.
(more…)OK, well, there it is. The AAPL earnings. And while I’m glad we’re not raging higher, it’s not exactly thrilling. As of now (which is, to be clear, before any kind of conference call) AAPL is down a fraction of one percent, plunging to prices not seen since last evening’s trading session.
