Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

That Funny Feeling

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My portfolio is not the market. I am not just referring to the fact I am a shameless, card-carrying permabear and that my portfolio is the inverse of the market, because it isn’t. I am referring to its behavior in the context of general market circumstances.

There are times when the market is weak and my portfolio isn’t moving. This is terribly frustrating for me, and I’ll glare at my screen and say GO DOWN! although it never helps. There are also times, like in recent days, when no matter what the market does – – even when it’s very strong – – my portfolio is a total champ, even to the point of me having no idea why on earth I’m doing well in the face of a screamingly green market. Wednesday was particularly like this, even with my myriad screw-ups.

As Thursday’s trading day wound down, I was getting a very good feeling about what today, Friday, was going to be like. When I feel that strongly about the market, I basically shut myself off from it. I don’t look at any screens. I don’t look at any updates. If I’m near a screen that might have a chart or a quote on it, I avert my eyes, much as you would at a YWCA locker room where you heard Yellen might be changing into her gym clothes. I want to keep my mind blank.

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A Perfect Morning

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Perfect? Why would I say that? Every single index is up, and up big!

Well, it’s raining, for one thing. I’ve got the window open on this pitch-black morning, and the sound of the rain always pleases me. I guess it’s no shock that rain is my favorite kind of weather. I’ve got Bob Dylan’s Street Legal playing in the background, my dogs are here, my charts are here, and I’m feeling comfortable with the market. So I’ve shed some profits this morning. So what? They’ll come back.

The market’s ephemeral strength, of course, has come from the un-surprising CPI print, which caused the /ES to bounce (although not quite as high as its post-bailout peak, circled below).

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Gripping the Oscar

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We humans like the see bad guys lose. Like when the Americans overrun the Nazis about 25 minutes into Saving Private Ryan. Or when Saddam is being led to his noose. Or when Osama bin Laden is shot dead. Or when Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell’s plans go horribly awry. They’re all evil, and it’s good to see them meet their comeuppance.

The last of those examples took place today, and I couldn’t be happier. There is one more piece of this jigsaw puzzle, and that is the CPI tomorrow morning. I’ll get to that in a bit. For the moment, I shall simply applaud today’s market action, whose peak on the SPY almost perfectly tagged the underbelly of the broken trendline. In case you missed it the first dozen times, my bold call right now is for the double Fibonacci support to fail the next time it is challenged. If this transpires, we can all crown me the King of Charts for the rest of time. We shall see. My head is as yet unadorned.

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More On!

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The bulls just won’t give up, will they? Every little piece of news they can twist and distort into some reason for their pathetic “pivot” wishes does the trick. This morning, jobless claims shot higher, so the bulls ran out screeching and buying up stocks. It’s pathetic. This market is going to get destroyed, and these nimrods just won’t stop buying, buying, and buying. It’s their only skill. Me? I went even more short.

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