Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In Case A 1987-Style Crash Happens Next
The Big Liberation Day Surprise
Not NEARLY Short Enough
Well, slip me into a pink taffeta dress and call me Peaches. The market is collapsing, and I’m not NEARLY short enough. Not even close.
Let’s back up a bit. I’ve been feeling rather jerked around by the market this week. So much so that I trimmed the sails quite a bit. Among the four accounts I trade, the allocation levels I’m at are 40%, 56%, 60%, and 65% allocated to live positions. In other words, I’m at about 50% cash.
That was a comforting thought to me when the Prezident lumbered out to the podium and stated that there would be a 10% “baseline” to tariffs, which sent markets around the world exploding higher. After a little while, though, he clumsily pulled out a big poster board like those a kid would use for a science project and which displayed the much, much higher than 10% tariffs, and the markets absolutely vomited all over themselves. My adoration of that 50% cash vanished INSTANTLY. Jesus H. Christ, man!
Winning the Wrong Way
Winning the Wrong Way: Lessons from a Drunken Gambler
“Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose…”
— David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker
Most investors don’t lose money because they lack intelligence. They lose because they mistake outcomes for skill.
A few winning trades, a hot stock tip, or a lucky streak can seduce even the most rational person into thinking they’ve cracked the code. But if you’re serious about trading—especially options—you can’t afford to play that game. You need a strategy where the odds are tilted in your favor, not just this week, but over years of repeated decisions.
(more…)