Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Quantum Risks

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I read a lengthy piece (on /wsb, of all places) damning the entire quantum computing sector as an insane pipe dream and declaring that the white-hot companies in that space would all get wiped out. I asked good old grok to lay out what it considered the main risks in this field, and this is what it said:

Investing in quantum computing companies carries significant risks due to the field's nascent stage and technical complexity. Here are the top three risks:
  1. Technological Uncertainty and Slow Progress: Quantum computing is still in its early stages, with many technical hurdles to overcome, such as error rates, qubit stability, and scaling. There’s no guarantee that current approaches (e.g., superconducting qubits or trapped ions) will lead to commercially viable systems. Delays or failures in achieving practical quantum advantage could lead to prolonged losses or company failures, as seen with some early quantum startups.
  2. High Capital Burn and Financial Instability: Developing quantum hardware and software requires massive investment in R&D, specialized facilities, and talent. Many companies, especially smaller startups, have high cash burn rates with limited revenue streams, as commercial applications remain years away. This increases the risk of insolvency or dilution of shareholder value through frequent fundraising, as evidenced by financial struggles of firms like Rigetti Computing.
  3. Market Competition and Consolidation: The quantum computing landscape is crowded with well-funded players, including tech giants (e.g., IBM, Google, Microsoft) and startups (e.g., IonQ, PsiQuantum). Intense competition could lead to a winner-takes-most scenario, where only a few companies dominate. Smaller or less differentiated firms risk being outpaced or acquired at unfavorable terms, reducing returns for investors.
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Looking at the Semis

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Perhaps the cleanest setup for a hard fall among all the indexes I am examining is the semiconductor index, symbol $SOX. It still has a little more potential upside before it hits its resistance trendline, but tagging this trendline is not a necessary prerequisite. The point is that there’s much more downside risk than upside opportunity at present price levels, and virtually all of the power behind the last two months of ascent is predicated on the continuation of AI Fever.

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