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(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Piling In to Fail
Below is a chart of Cathie’s fabled fund ARKK up to its mid-February 2021 peak. Take note of the volume. Interesting how more and more people kept jumping into this thing, right as it was ready to collapse by 60%, isn’t it?
OK, that’s the end of the so-called weekend for me. Time to rest of for an insane week-long battle!
Craziest Ultra Ever
As most of you know, leveraged fund tend to degrade over time, unless there is a persistent trend in the desired direction of the fund. If the S&P goes up, let’s say, 10% in a given year, the double-bearish fund against the S&P doesn’t go down 20%. It may be down 50% (possibly) depending on how crazy the ride was. I think one of the craziest ones of all is UVXY, which is the ultrashort against voatility.
Neutron Bomb of Fear
I am flabbergasted at the collapse of the fear index. In the span of just a few days, it was crushed to almost half its level, collapse from the mid-30s back into the teens. We see plainly that BTFD rules the human mind. My view is that this will be recognized as an error in judgment. I hate to put so much weight on one report, but I again point to tomorrow morning’s CPI data as a potential inflection point.
All the Sense in the World
As much of a kick as it is to see the market get swamped by selling for a few days, it is only natural (particularly given the corrupted construct of this market) that there be some strong buying at some point, such as, oh, right now. Indeed, as I am thumbing through some of the younger charts out there (those that have been public only a year or two and, in recent weeks, have been particularly ravaged), they are the ones hammering out what look like solid short-term bottoms.
All the same, as I look through the index charts, the kinds of levels the indexes are approaching making all the sense in the world with respect to where gaps should be closed or resistance should be met. Even in the context of an overall market swoon, the market action today is abundantly acceptable.
