Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
If you are a "cover contrarian" and a bear, you will love the cover of Barron's this week:
That's right; Barron's is declaring bears doomed, based on input from big money managers.
The same big money managers who said………
This is simple, folks: Big Money Managers have no vested interest in saying anything except that the market will go higher.
Every year.
Forever.
So this Barron's story is just a joke that the world never quite seems to get.
Click for bigger chart
This is a look at a Point
& Figure 2-box reversal chart of the SPY (12
June 2010). At best, I think the current price action can be described
as a correction and not major top yet.
Obviously, a major top could be forming and the current descending
formation is definitely bearish, but I view it in
totality as neutral until 106.00 has been resolved to
the downside. Chart data is easily skewed, but looking at at the SPY
this way with the noise removed, we can see that the 106.00
level is potentially pivotal.
There is a rising 45 degree trend-line coming out of a low support
zone that appears destine up to meet up with the 106 potential support
level. This, along with four recent tests of 106.00, might engender
bullish price action if it holds. In Point & Figure charting, 45
degree trend-lines are quite important, and any violation of them is
seen as an actionable event (i.e., trade worthy). Conversely, their
support is also actionable.
Considering the broadening nature of the 106 area (at the moment, a
Quadruple Bottom) and the approaching trend-line, a violation of this
confluence on heavy volume would be quite bearish and might begin a
price spiral down to the potential support zone of 85-87.
With the current bearish descending pattern in place, a retest of
106.00 isn't out of the question despite the past few days of bullish
bounce.
As always, price is king and all support and resistance levels can
(and will) be broken without warning. I view supply and demand levels
the same way as I view overbought and oversold levels: as potentials and
not absolutes.
Good luck and good trading.
Jack Damn
Originally posted on my Tumblr Blog
I mentioned the "Crash is dead ahead" article a day or two go as evidence that the bottom, for the immediate moment, was in. I find it amusing that today's MarketWatch home page still has it as the top article contemporaneous with reports of the blowaway bull rally we had today. It just goes to show you – – – whatever is in the mass media, fade it.
As the author of this blog, I have access to a kind of insider information that no one else does. Namely, however much people hate or love what I'm saying.
I'm not talking about Slopers. I mean the outside world. The infidels. The others.
Back on Sunday, May 9, I wrote a post strongly encouraging the bulls to buy like mad. I wrote this in a style that made it obvious I wanted them to bid stocks up merely so I could short them. A couple of folks – MiniFlowTrader and FuturesDude (who have twitter accounts with maybe 30 followers each) decided I would "regret" this as that indeed the market was a "helluva dip to buy." I've marked the date when they sent out these tweets to their handful of followers:
Well, I got my wish – – a bid-up market, and a fantastic shorting opportunity. So when I see snark like the above, I think it's a great sign. The same goes for hate mail like this:
I'm a contrarian, and when the unwashed masses think I'm an idiot, that's probably a good sign.
What's happened recently is quite the opposite. I've gotten deluged with thank-yous and love letters. Now, listen, it's appreciated – – don't get me wrong. I work really hard on Slope, and it's nice to get a pat on the back. But when the dam bursts and I'm flooded with love, to me, that's a bell ringing. And that was a pretty big factor in my decision to cover and, to a degree, go long.
I think we've got a rough, weird, gruesome climb up to as high as 1170 on the /ES. My trading is going to be very light until then. I'll probably focus on just day-trading some big ETFs. But once we're a lot higher, I'm going to get a lot more aggressive. And – with luck – there will be ample bulls out there to tell me what a fool I am. I sure hope so!
