Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

About Those Lottery Picks

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I'm going to kick off the day talking about the one account which has been thriving, and that's my IRA (which was also my best percentage-gainer last year). Regular readers know this is my least flexible account – – no margin, no shorting, no options, no futures. Just cash-only longs are permitted.

In spite of that, it has done, and continues to do, well. My strategy on this one is consistent – – – a multitude of small positions in battered, cheaply-priced stocks that seem to have made a base. LVLT, up 20% in pre-market this morning, is a good example:

You can look at first watch list "Long Stocks (High Risk") to see all my holdings there. I prefer adding positions when the market is really soft, but I'll be scouting around for more picks like these, since I think, percentage-wise, this portfolio has the best prospects for gains in the coming months.

Back in Black

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OK, this blog is getting too emotional. I need to drink more sake, I guess. Perhaps during the entire trading day.

Well, I've finished my merciless sweep of commenters, and I've banned…………….zero. I'm too committed to free speech to hack away wildly. If anyone is over-the-top, I'll nuke 'em. But, hell, even piggy said he didn't meant any harm, so he's alive and well.

The past five or six trading days have been, for the most part, horribly disorienting. It really takes the joy out of trading. But the market does what the market does, and we have to adapt. I've been buying TWM lately, trying to take advantage of what I think will be a dip in my old friend the Russell 2000 (which used to get mentioned as frequently as the /ES does now)

I think I am so shellshocked from the past week that almost nothing will freak me out tomorrow. 35-point one-hour tears on the /ES notwithstanding, I think I'm jaded enough at the moment to tolerate just about anything.

I enjoyed my 120-minute hiatus from comments. I'm back now. See you in the morning. I'll have my steel codpiece on.

A Change of Heart

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I just got back from a nice sushi dinner with my family, and a couple of sakes into it, I thought to myself, "It's my f_cking blog. There's no reason I have to put up with jerks."

So I've had a change of heart. I'm going to go through the day's posts and nuke anyone snarky. I welcome meaningful discussion, but I'm not going to get dumped on in my own home. So I am not going to recuse myself from the comments section. I'm just going to keep it a civil place with a one-strike-and-you're-out policy.

By "strike" I don't mean a different point of view. I mean a comment deliberately meant to be nasty. I can tell the difference.

If you're confused what I am talking about, just read the prior post. Thanks.

Audi TT

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A week or two ago, a well-known regular here on Slope, Trader Tamas ("TT"), declared that hanging out in the comments section had sort of warped his trading (more specifically, the thinking leading to his trading), and he was going to bow out of comments. (I am paraphrasing here, but that was my impression). He disappeared for a while and sort of re-appeared a week later. He has a lot of good things to say, and I'm glad he's back.

But I've sort of reached my "TT Moment" as well. There are a wide variety of comment types that appear on Slope. Some of them are trading questions or other logistical queries. Some are seeking recommendations. Other folks want to share their recent victory on a trade (almost invariably followed by "attaboy" comments). And some people want to share an article or quote that found to be interesting.

There are a couple of kinds of comments that are more directed toward me, however. One kind, which bubbles up when things are going my way, is kind of a "go get 'em tiger!" sort of remark. Those are fun, but I think they get me a little too biased in my disposition. The other kind, which pops up when things don't go my way (such as the last-hour pop today, which stinks to high heaven of manipulation), are snarky, Nelson-like "ha-ha!" posts. That just adds salt to the wound. Plus it's particularly obnoxious to me, your generous host. A certain pig avatar springs to mind.

For my own mental health, I think I'm going to revert to a monologue mode. So whereas in the past it was unlikely I would have the time or opportunity to respond to queries in the comments section, from now on you should consider me unavailable. It also relieves me of the burden of reading comments, since I get really antsy when I get behind (as I've been very vocal about).

As for today, I'll share a few thoughts:

  • I spent a good chunk of the trading day going through all the positions in my big account (the other three accounts, I did yesterday), and I harvested some long profits, but by and large I simply tightened up stops. I also ditched one of my CBRL shorts, since I'm sick of that stock's strength.
  • A day like today is emotionally exhausting. I went from a 7% loss to a 15% gain to a 0.5% gain. Watching a huge gain morph into a tiny gain, especially with as much work as this is, is infuriating, particularly since what drove the pop absolutely reeks of criminal manipulation. It has nothing to do with true worth. It has everything to do with the government trying to wet-nurse an ignorant public, and it's disgusting.
  • My portfolio is still quite hedged, although a little more bearish now. I will say what I've been saying every single day: chart after chart after chart screams "short!" I still have about 70 or so long positions, but they are absolutely vulnerable to a downturn. If the market starts to stumble its way downward, God help my IRA (which was a new record high today, for the same old reasons).
  • Someone pointed out (after the fact, of course), that the Retracement Level nailed the bottom. Well, of course it did, because these days, those Levels exist about every 3 or 4 points! It's bound to hit one of them! I love RL, but I've got to say, it's been of very little use to me the past few weeks, because the levels are so tightly clustered. Maybe it's more beneficial during trending markets.

I suppose the next inflection point is going to be the GDP numbers, released an hour before tomorrow's opening. I don't mind that trading feels like a battle from time to time. But when it's a huge battle every day, with opposite sides taking control every two or three hours, it's brutal.

Anyway, comments can sustain themselves just fine without me for a while. If anyone becomes trouble, drop me an email, and I'll nuke them (assuming they are being egregious). The "Report" link doesn't do anything except give them a negative point, so don't rely on that to – – umm – – Report anyone. Thanks.